GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 17 August 2022

⏱️ 72 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

0:00 - Intro

03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?

06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective

10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?

20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months

26:18 - What about the longer term?

31:39 - The historical perspective

39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now

48:22 - Dealing with external factors

58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering

01:02:07...

Transcript

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0:00.0	You know, I don't think we know.
0:08.5	I don't think we have the right answers.
0:10.4	I think the most important thing we can do is just be humble and basie and about this entire process
0:14.8	and understand that, hey, we're probably going through regime change.
0:18.5	Some of the things that we're used to doing are probably going to continue to work. Some of the things that we're used to doing are probably
0:21.0	going to continue to work. Some of the things that we're used to doing are probably going to stop
0:24.6	working. But it's very important for us to be very, you know, president, open and honest about that
0:30.5	process in real time so that we can do less of what's, you know, going to stop working and do more
0:35.4	of what's going to continue to work.
0:42.3	Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders.
0:46.8	Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures.
0:48.8	Imagine no more.
0:55.3	Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world,
0:59.7	so you can take your manager, due diligence, or investment career to the next level.
1:03.7	Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind.
1:07.6	All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past,
1:11.9	and past performance does not guarantee or even infer anything about future performance.
1:12.9	Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial loss with all investment strategies,
1:17.1	and you need to request and understand the specific risks from the investment manager
1:21.7	about their product before you make investment decisions.
1:25.0	Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kostrup Larson.
1:34.8	A new world order is emerging, and in our global macro series, I, along with my co-host,
	...

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