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The Breakdown

Glassnode's James Check on the Peak Capitulation Event That Flushed Out the Final Bitcoin Top Buyers

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8786 Ratings

🗓️ 17 April 2023

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This episode is an excerpt from my recent interview with Glassnode's James Check. The full interview covers why the recent $30k run-up was spot not leverage driven, why BTC is shifting from whales to smaller holders, and why these markets are much healthier than when FTX was around.  Subscribe to Bitcoin Builders and get the full episode here: https://pod.link/1680067216/episode/5b15ff1cd80a9f799055323582dae4bc

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

What's going on, guys. What you're about to hear is an excerpt from my recent interview with

0:04.4

Glass Notes, James Check. This was originally published on Bitcoin Builders, my new show about,

0:10.4

well, Bitcoin Builders. In that conversation, we talk about everything that Bitcoin on-chain

0:15.1

data is telling us, or at least everything but the price. We get into things like the shift away

0:20.7

from Wales, towards smaller holders, why the most recent

0:23.7

run past 30K was driven by spot trading, not leverage, and why the markets are just

0:28.3

a hell of a lot healthier now than before the FTX collapse.

0:32.2

In the clip you're about to hear, James gets into how we've seen a major shift in the holder

0:35.8

base over the last six months,

0:42.7

with that late November period really representing peak capitulation and helping get the cycle ready to renew. Again, to hear the rest of this interview, go subscribe to Bitcoin Builders, and let's listen in.

1:08.7

So one of the things that we've been talking about a lot is something that it seems like you've been observing, which is the way that things shifted around this sort of inflection point moment of FTX.

1:11.2

Obviously, everyone who lived through that, who was in the crypto industry, knew that it was significant. Obviously, it's been politically significant,

1:16.2

among other implications. But the on-chain story is also significant. And so I want to dig

1:22.2

into a little bit sort of, you know, what we've started to see sort of following FTX and what it suggests about

1:28.2

where we are in the overall cycle. Totally. And I think this kind of gets into the crux of what

1:34.5

creates kind of Bitcoin flaws. And, you know, knock on wood that we've got a Bitcoin floor

1:38.5

behind us. You know, it kind of remains to be seen, but let's just take that as a given for now. So, you know, when we're looking at

1:44.2

on-chain data, we tend to use cohorts. We call cohorts. And one of the more popular ones that

1:49.6

Glass node came up with back, I think it was 2020, was this concept of long and short-term holders.

1:55.0

So what we're doing here is we're dividing because we can see when a coin was acquired, and that means we can see the price when it was acquired and how long the investor has held it. Now, if you look at a probability distribution of

2:05.4

how often coins are spent, basically the longer that a coin remains in someone's wallet, the more

2:10.8

likely it is to stay there. So the other way to think about that is Hodlers be Hoddley

...

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