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The Guardian archive long reach.

Hi, I'm Laura Spiny. I'm a science journalist and writer.

And I'm the author of the Longweed History as a giant data set.

How analysing the past could help save the future, which was published in November 2019.

I suppose if there was one trigger for writing this story, it was a letter to the science journal nature in the first issue of 2010.

Written by the person who is the main subject of my long-read Peter Turchin in which he basically said that the US was heading for a period of social turbulence.

And this was contrasted against this being the first issue of a new decade, all sorts of sunny, optimistic, positive predictions about what science and technology would bring us over the next decade.

So it was quite striking, but that letter fell almost completely by the wayside. Nobody really picked up on it.

So I became rather intrigued by it.

And I have basically been following Peter's work since then.

It is, I think, very intriguing and exciting, very controversial.

So when we were approaching the date of when the prediction should come to fruition, when that period of social turbulence should happen, i.e. 2020,

I proposed a long way to the Guardian, seemed a good time to ask whether there was anything in it.

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