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The Bakari Sellers Podcast

From Polls to Votes With Tom Bonier

The Bakari Sellers Podcast

The Ringer

Politics, News

4.8966 Ratings

🗓️ 26 May 2022

⏱️ 25 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Bakari Sellers is joined by TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier to unpack some of the criticism aimed at pollsters since 2016 (1:14), the Democratic outlook in midterm elections while reproductive rights are in jeopardy (5:09), plus a preview of some key gubernatorial races (16:40). Host: Bakari Sellers Guest: Tom Bonier Producer: Donnie Beacham Jr. Executive Producer: Jarrod Loadholt Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

And welcome to a new that it's going to be okay.

0:17.0

And welcome to another episode of the Boccaricellis podcast. I don't always do this, but on this episode, I had to go back and get Tom Bonier who is just one of the smartest political minds I know

0:26.1

because we have to kind of sort out what the hell is going on in this American political landscape and we've had you on the show before

0:35.4

time but if you can remind our listeners of how you got into politics in the business of public

0:40.6

opinion and polling, let's start from there.

0:43.0

Yeah, and I'm so happy to be back.

0:45.0

I've sort of been in this line of business from the beginning, for me.

0:50.0

I started when I was 19 years old working in the original Democratic numbers crunching entity,

0:57.0

NCEC and have just spent my entire career working around political data and basically helping campaigns make data-driven decisions, which sounds simple, but I don't know, increasingly difficult these days.

1:14.0

You know about that whole thing and some of the work that you all have been doing,

1:17.5

you know, posters got a lot of flack after 2020 and have been getting flax since 2016 for folks who aren't political junkies can you

1:26.0

unpack some of the criticism about polling and posters stemming from some of the really bad polling we saw in 2020 and I've you seen pollsters respond.

1:36.2

Yeah, I mean that's that's the big question and honestly like it didn't start in

1:42.4

2020 I mean I think really back to 2016 when

1:46.3

the polling gave us such confidence that Hillary Clinton was going to be next

1:50.4

president and the polls were just wrong.

1:53.2

And you know at that point the answer was,

1:55.8

okay, we're not getting the right people.

1:58.8

There's a bias and a lot of the pollsters reacted

2:01.0

I think in a pretty smart way by looking at the way they were drawing

2:04.4

samples, the way they were waiting it, because in the end of poll has to, to be accurate, it has to look

2:10.3

like the electorate. And that's hard because who knows what the electorate is going to look like the electorate and that's hard because who knows what the electorate is going to look

...

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