Welcome to Hard Talk on the BBC World Service with me, Sarah Montague.

30 years ago, the Soviet Union collapsed and communist governments fell across Eastern Europe.

Liberal democracy appeared to have won the Cold War and triumphed in the battle of ideas.

My guest, the renowned political scientist Francis Fukuyama, posed a question,

if humanity had arrived at the most effective form of government,

were we at the end of history?

Well, in the years since liberal democracy has often seemed in retreat,

and in his new book, liberalism and its discontents,

he's explored the way in which societies have become divided and fractious.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the whole world changed again.

Francis Fukuyama is convinced that President Putin has miscalculated

and is heading for outright defeat.

So what does that mean for the course of history and the progress of liberal democracy?

Francis Fukuyama, welcome to Hard Talk.

Thank you very much.

Now, you have said that Russia is heading for outright defeat in Ukraine.

Why do you think Russia is going to lose?

Well, I don't know that it's going to lose.

I'm pretty sure that it's not going to win.

Putin had hoped for a 48-hour rush to Kiev. He would

overthrow the democratically elected Zelensky regime, put in a puppet. That's not going to

happen. And I think at this point, three weeks into the war, even if he manages to take

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