Just before this BBC podcast gets underway, here's something you may not know.

My name's Linda Davies and I Commission Podcasts for BBC Sounds.

As you'd expect, at the BBC we make podcasts of the very highest quality featuring the most knowledgeable

experts and genuinely engaging voices. What you may not know is that the BBC

makes podcasts about all kinds of things like pop stars,

poltergeist, cricket, and conspiracy theories and that's just a few examples.

If you'd like to discover something a little bit unexpected, find your next podcast over at BBC Sounds.

Hello and welcome to More or Less, the show that places a golden crown on the head of statistics

while whispering, Remember You A Mortal in their ears.

This week, what on earth does a 27% chance of rain at 2 o'clock mean on a weather forecast app. How many people were denied ballot papers in the recent

English local elections because they couldn't produce identification? And just how rich are pensioners.

Another bank holiday is approaching and many of us have our eyes on the weather and what with it being a national obsession

we have received countless emails from listeners asking about the weather and

specifically about the BBC's weather app.

This was updated earlier this year,

and it now includes an hour by hour breakdown

telling you what chance there is of it raining

wherever you are. This is expressed as a percentage, 27% at 2 o'clock, 68% at 3 o'clock, 0% at 4 o'clock. You get the picture. But what seems to be confusing people is what

does that percentage actually mean? What does it mean if you see a figure suggesting

there's a 40% chance of rain at 4 o'clock, that four times out of 10

there'll be rain on days like that, that it will rain for 40% of the time, that presumably is 24 minutes, or that it will rain over 40% of a geographical

area.

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