The recent decline in commodity prices has provided a rare respite for Central Banks trying to rein in high inflation.

But even as most commodity prices are off recent peaks, many physical commodity markets remain tight.

At the same time, Europe is facing an acute energy shortage with the curtailment of Russian gas flow.

So are the energy and food crises afflicting the world actually easing?

I'm Alistin Nathan and this is exchanges at Coleman Sachs.

On this special episode of exchanges at Goldman Sachs, we're breaking down my most

recent top-of-mind report. We first pit a commodity bull, our global head of commodities research Jeff Curry,

against a bear, Gary Schilling of A Gary Schilling and Co, to understand where commodity

prices might be headed from here.

Curions long argued that we're only at the start of a new commodity super cycle.

He believes that the recent reprieve in prices will prove temporary because the structural issues that led

commodity prices to rise in the first place remain unresolved.

In October of 2020 we started arguing that we were entering a commodity super cycle similar to what we saw in the

1970s and in the 2000s driven by structural under-investment in pretty much everything in the old economy, which

we coined the revenge of the old economy.

Put bluntly, poor returns in the old economy saw a capital redirected to the new economy.

Another way to say it is investors preferred Netflix over Exxon and rightfully

saw the return on equity in Netflix was substantially greater than that of Axon.

The issue is it went on far too long, creating supply shortages.

This dynamic is rooted in history.

We go back to the super cycle in the 70s.

It started in 68 and ended as 80.

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