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Exchanges

Fiscal Focus

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 2 December 2019

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With monetary policy, conducted by central banks, nearly exhausted in the major economies and low interest rates globally, whether fiscal policy, conducted by governments, should play a greater role from here is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor, Alberto Alesina, and Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius. They discuss whether increased fiscal stimulus today would do more good than harm, and, even if it would, whether the economies that need it the most will pursue it. Our key takeaways: Germany should embrace a large fiscal expansion, but likely won’t; investors should expect some more fiscal stimulus in China, but only enough to avoid a sharp slowdown. Audio of former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is courtesy of the European Central Bank YouTube channel via the Creative Commons Attribution license ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjIaLD4I8go⁠). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

From Goldman Sachs research, this is Alison Nathan.

0:03.0

Welcome to Top of Mind, a podcast that explores macroeconomic issues on the minds of our clients.

0:14.0

In this episode, we explore whether governments should be doing more to boost the economy

0:23.6

by either directly spending more money in the economy, for example, by funding public infrastructure,

0:29.6

or by cutting taxes so that people or companies have more money to spend themselves.

0:34.6

The counterpart to these types of fiscal policies conducted by governments is monetary

0:39.9

policy conducted by central banks.

0:42.7

This is typically the first line of defense when economic growth slows because central banks

0:47.4

can quickly react by lowering interest rates and taking other measures that work to boost

0:52.3

activity.

0:53.3

But the problem today is that monetary policy is nearly exhausted in most major economies,

0:59.1

with interest rates very low globally, despite the fact that growth and inflation remain disappointing.

1:05.1

So there are now growing calls for fiscal policy to play a bigger role to support growth, especially in Europe.

1:11.6

Here's Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank,

1:15.6

during his farewell remarks in October.

1:17.6

Today we are in a situation where low interest rates are not delivering the same degree of stimulus as in the past,

1:26.6

because the rate of return on investment in the economy

1:30.3

has fallen. Monetary policy can still achieve its objective, but it can do so faster and with

1:38.3

fewer side effects if fiscal policies are aligned with it. This call for fiscal expansion might seem like a no-brainer.

1:48.0

But the downside is that if governments spend more money or taken less revenue by cutting taxes,

1:54.0

they're likely going to end up running a budget deficit, and especially if the deficit is large,

1:59.0

could end up with high debt levels.

...

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