Welcome to The Lost Debata Show for Politically Ecclectics. I'm Robbie Gupta, and I'm excited to welcome back our friend from Tangle News, Isaac, Saul. If you have not yet, get out there and subscribe and check out their wonderful podcast and YouTube channel. Isaac, we are a few days away from the election. How are you feeling?

tired already somehow? I don't know. Is that an appropriate

answer? Yeah, it's crazy. You know, so much information out there. Everybody's trying to read the tea

leaves. There's the fire hose of election fraud claims already starting up. So I'm busy,

feel underwater, but also excited and energized, ready to be on the other side of this

and get back to some normal work at some point soon, I hope.

You predicted a Trump win. Is that still your prediction today?

I'm still predicting a Trump win. I'd say I hedged that prediction initially by saying

that I think this race is basically a coin flip,

and I feel less confident that Trump is going to win today than I did two weeks ago.

I think there are some encouraging signs for Harris in the final days of the election,

but I am sticking to that prediction today for now.

Yeah, I told myself I would make a prediction on Monday because I want to give myself the full

information, which is cheating because voting is already happening while I'm talking.

And I don't care. I don't feel like the audience comes to me for that. But the one thing I did

do to show my cards

is yesterday I purchased Harris on one of the, I used Robin Hood, but like on one of the

prediction markets, because she was selling at 37 cents, that wasn't me saying I think she's

going to win. It just is that I think she has a greater than 37% chance of winning.

And I'd largely base that on like you kind of roll up all the projections. They all seem to agree that it's either a straight up coin flip or slightly favored Trump, but not a 6337, which is what the prediction markets were showing. Yeah, I mean, I also think all we've been

hearing for the last couple weeks is how big the Republican early vote turnout has been, which I think

is both misleading and also is driving a lot of people who are playing in the prediction market in a direction

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