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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Fertility rates: baby boom or bust?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 30 January 2022

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Under lockdown, couples were destined to find themselves closer than ever before, but despite what you’d think – this didn’t result in a higher birth rate. In fact in developed countries across the world the birth rate is falling, we spoke to Professor Marina Adshade about why this is and what this could mean for the future.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service, with a program that tracks

0:05.1

down suspicious claims and questionable predictions and puts them to the test.

0:09.7

And I'm Tim Haafard.

0:11.6

If you heard our numbers of the year program recently, you may recall the economist

0:15.6

Marina Adshade describing a sharp decline in fertility rates in the United States.

0:21.0

Ten years ago, the US had really high teen birth rates, especially compared to other

0:26.2

developed countries. And that's something that's really changed over time, is it teenagers

0:30.8

are far less likely to be giving birth now than they were 10 years ago.

0:35.1

Well, she's back, with a picture from around the world.

0:46.7

Under lockdown, couples were destined to find themselves closer than ever before.

0:51.8

Many pundits predicted this enforced intimacy was short to instigate a baby making boom.

0:58.2

But Marina Adshade, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, told

1:02.8

us otherwise, back in the early weeks of the pandemic.

1:06.6

And much as I hate to report that romance may be more dead than alive in these matters,

1:11.0

Adshade was right to be skeptical.

1:22.0

I thought this was actually pretty easy when to call that people would have fewer children.

1:26.5

I think that the idea that the reason people weren't having children is because they

1:30.2

apparently didn't have time to get busy, I don't think that was the cause.

1:33.9

I think there's a lot of economic decision making that goes into deciding how many children

1:38.4

you have, and in times of uncertainty, people don't have more children because they want

1:44.2

to know that they could be able to support those children.

1:46.8

Ah, so romance might be alive after all.

...

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