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Wall Street Breakfast

Fed special: Rates held, Powell’s tell and market impact with Chaim Siegel

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, News, Business, Investing

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 14 June 2023

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Chaim Siegel, leader of the Fed Trader Investing Group, joins SA's Kim Khan for a breakdown of Wednesday’s Fed decision. What the hawkish pause means for the equity rally, why the market is skeptical about Jay Powell’s rate cut pronouncement, how jobless claims remain crucial and more.

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Show notes:

Subscribe to Chaim Siegel's Fed Trader

Fed holds rates steady

Two hikes penciled into dot plot

Powell press conference highlights

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the special Fed edition of Seeking Alpha's Wall Street breakfast

0:04.2

podcast. I'm your host Kim Kahn. With me is Kranz Reggel. He's the

0:08.3

Investing Group leader of Fed Trader on Seeking Alpha and founder of Elizar Advisors.

0:13.5

Thanks for joining us.

0:14.5

Great, great to be here.

0:15.5

Thank you, Kim.

0:16.5

So let's just look by the numbers at the Fed decision today.

0:19.6

No move, as expected, still five and a quarter range. In the dot plot, there were two hikes

0:26.0

penciled in for year end going up to 5.6% for 5.1%. Also in the dots, they had higher GDP, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, a lot to

0:36.8

unpack there. So what's your initial thoughts?

0:39.9

I said to subscribers that there's what the what Powell needs to do and what he's probably

0:46.4

gonna do. What he needs to do is be much more aggressive, but what he's probably gonna do

0:51.0

is not be so aggressive and two measly hikes in an

0:56.1

environment where core inflation is staying very high and stubborn and

1:00.4

inflation expectations are rising and they're ignoring that,

1:05.0

focused on for decades.

1:07.0

They're going very easy on inflation, which is bullish.

1:11.0

If they let inflation run, which I think this move today is letting inflation

1:16.3

run, then it's a bullish story for the market because inflation is prices and the stock market is prices and you know prices go up.

1:25.0

So you would have liked to see even a move today you think? No no I'm not

1:30.0

telling the Fed what to do I'm just telling them if they want to reduce inflation

1:35.9

today's move and today's guidance did not you know scare inflation lower.

...

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