4.9 • 746 Ratings
🗓️ 5 June 2025
⏱️ 60 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Eno, Trevor, and DVR discuss a lengthy absence of Pablo López following a Grade 2 teres major strain, and wonder if Chase Burns' arrival in Cincinnati might come earlier than expected with Hunter Greene's return to the IL. Plus, they dig into the regression cases of several starting pitchers -- including the always puzzling Andrew Abbott, Kris Bubic, Casey Mize, and several others.
Rundown
0:42 Pablo Lopez: Out 8-12 Weeks
6:18 An Opportunity for David Festa
8:03 Hunter Greene Goes Back on the IL
11:50 Another Attempt to Understand Andrew Abbott's Success
19:29 2025 ERA v. Rest-of-Season Projections (OOPSY/ppERA)
25:43 Nathan Eovaldi's Tendency to Lose Velocity In Season
32:10 The Best Version of Casey Mize We've Seen?
41:02 Tyler Mahle's Low K% Will Become a Problem
44:14 Should You Worry About Jacob deGrom's Last Two Starts?
48:30 Checking In on the Drag on the Baseball
54:58 How Would Dynamic Daily Park Factors Impact Your Game Plan?
Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social
Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social
Follow Trevor on Bluesky: @iamtrevormay.bsky.social
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Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris
With: Trevor May
Producer: Brian Smith
Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper
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0:00.0 | Welcome to Rates and barrels. It's Thursday, June 5th, Derek Van Riper, Enosarous, Trevor May here with you on this episode. We are going to look at some pitching candidates ripe for a fade |
0:22.9 | as the season continues. We're going to try and figure it out, try to predict the future, find |
0:27.5 | the guys who are going to come crashing back to earth, maybe to their projections or to something |
0:32.5 | even worse. Challenging exercise, but we're here to try it. None the less. Lots of ground to cover |
0:38.7 | today, though, guys. Got a couple baseball news items everyone should know about. We learned |
0:43.2 | yesterday, Pablo Lopez is going to miss eight to 12 weeks with a grade two shoulder strain. |
0:48.7 | The Terry's major, to be specific, I believe it's the exact same injury that Joe Ryan had |
0:53.7 | late in the year last year. |
0:55.6 | Ended Ryan's season. The twins are optimistic, of course, with that timetable that they'll get him |
0:59.8 | back sometime after the trade deadline early August, kind of in the best case scenario, maybe early |
1:04.6 | September, if he takes the longer end of that window. It does open up an opportunity for David |
1:10.2 | Festa, just not really the way we hoped Festa was going to get that chance in the rotation. Real quick, though, Pablo Lopez posting career best ratios so far, you know, 282 ERA 107 whipped through 11 starts. So obviously a big loss, you know, regardless of form, but just, is there anything different about |
1:28.1 | Pablo Lopez so far this year that was pushing him to that next level? I didn't really notice |
1:33.5 | much. I think that the change-up was a slightly different. What was it that was so different about it? |
1:39.6 | But I, like, rage dropped him today. Not, not rage at him, you know, like I want to be clear. |
1:46.7 | It's nothing about him. It's just the injury situation and it was an auto new where like |
1:52.5 | if somebody picks him up, I get all that money and I needed the money and needed the flexibility. |
1:57.8 | But yeah, in terms of movement profiles or anything, like you can't point to |
2:03.0 | Velo being up or down, like it's down half a tick. That's nothing. You can't really point too |
2:08.9 | much in the sweeper category. I mean, he does throw it. So if you're Dr. Keith Meister, |
2:15.9 | I guess you're blaming the sweeper. Shade. |
2:19.5 | Hear that, Meister? He's calling you out, dude. |
... |
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