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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Factchecking Trump on Trade

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 16 March 2018

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Whenever Donald Trump talks about trade he brings up one statistic again and again, the US trade balance. This is the relationship between the goods and services the US imports from other countries and what it exports – if America buys more from a country than that country buys from America there’s a deficit, and Trump claims America has a trade deficit with almost every country in the world. Is he right? We unpick whether President Trump is quoting the correct numbers on trade, hear how trade figures can vary widely between countries and ask if it’s the right approach to focus trade deal negotiations on reducing the US deficit. (Photo: President Donald Trump participates in a meeting with leaders of the steel industry at the White House, Washington, DC. Credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to more or less the program that looks at the numbers in the news and the world

0:04.4

around us. I'm Kate Lambel. Over the last few weeks the newspapers have been full of fears of

0:09.4

a global trade war. Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from the likes of

0:14.5

China, Canada and Mexico unless supposedly unfair trade deals are ripped up and renegotiated.

0:22.0

Following the back and forth though, what's really noticeable is that when it comes to trade,

0:26.8

only one statistic really seems to matter to the American president.

0:33.2

The deficit is getting bigger and bigger. Our deficit with China, as you know,

0:38.4

$504 billion. When we're down by 30 billion, 40 billion, 60 billion, 100 billion.

0:45.6

When President Trump talks about trade, he only talks about trade deficits. It's the single metric

0:51.8

that he always goes back to when referring to a particular relationship. Mexico is an example.

0:57.3

We probably lose $130 billion a year. We lose a lot with Canada. People don't know it.

1:03.9

He said, no, no, you have a trade surplus. I said, no, we don't. I said, no, no, you have a trade

1:08.6

surplus. I say, Mr. Prime Minister, we do not. At the moment Trump mentions trade deficits so

1:17.0

often it could almost be a drinking game. But what does the figure really tell us? Chad Boin is

1:22.8

a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a host of the podcast

1:27.6

trade talks. In general, a trade deficit or surplus is just the difference between what a country

1:34.4

imports, what it buys from other countries, and what a country exports, what it sells to its

1:39.6

trading partners. That includes physical goods. But also services. So, financial services or

1:45.0

insurance or architecture or lots of things that aren't tangible necessarily, but are still

1:50.7

transactions in the global economy. So, if America buys more from a country than that country buys

1:56.0

from America, there's a trade deficit. And according to Trump, America has a trade deficit

2:01.5

with nearly every country. And it adds up. We have almost an $800 billion a year trade deficit

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