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Newt's World

Episode 836: Tariffs, Market Volatility, and The Fed

Newt's World

Gingrich 360

News, Politics

4.76.3K Ratings

🗓️ 30 April 2025

⏱️ 34 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Newt talks with Anthony Esposito, founder and CEO of Island Capital Investments, about the current stock market volatility, the Federal Reserve's role, and the impact of tariffs. Esposito shares insights from his technical analysis model, predicting a bear market and emphasizing the need for structural economic changes. He critiques past and present Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the importance of focusing on price stability. Their conversation also covers the broader implications of tariffs and trade deficits, suggesting that the U.S. is poised for significant economic growth due to substantial onshoring and investment. Esposito underscores the importance of objective market analysis and shares his investment strategy, which currently leans towards short positions until market conditions stabilize.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

On this episode of Neutche World, I'm talking with Anthony Esposito, founder and CEO of Island Capital, co-host of the Policy and Profits podcast about the recent stock market volatility, the Federal Reserve, and the tariffs.

0:18.8

And as you can imagine, it's hard to be more relevant right now than those.

0:35.8

Mr. Speaker, thank you so much for joining me on Newtsworld.

0:39.7

Mr. Speaker, thank you so much for having me.

0:40.8

It's a pleasure to be here.

0:47.2

So given your experience background, how do you see the current situation in the stock market?

0:56.0

The current situation in the stock market, and I was pretty vocal about this back in December and January. I write a morning note where I was very vocal about it. I was out on some TV hits and out on the podcast as well.

1:02.2

We were seeing an overextended, over-leverage stock market coming into December, January.

1:09.0

My technical model, and I run a technical top-down model here, so I'm not

1:12.8

looking at fundamentals, I'm not looking at earnings reports. I'm really watching price, momentum,

1:17.7

and trend. I was watching those indicators in my model break down. And for the first time in a while,

1:24.4

it was breaking down on not only my daily count, so that would be the quicker trade, but it was breaking down on not only my daily count so that would be the

1:27.8

quicker trade but it was breaking down on the weekly and the monthly count so the daily count

1:33.6

quicker and more active but also intermediate and longer terms i was seeing what i was started to call

1:39.1

in january as a topping pattern which typically would occur as bull markets end and bear markets begin.

1:45.7

That is exactly what we saw. Now, I know the headlines become interchangeable and tariffs are

1:51.4

a major headline, and this is a major discussion as it creates a lot of questions moving forward

1:57.8

for the markets, for earnings, for investments, and for the economy.

2:07.1

But I would say that right now we are moving through the beginning phase of a bare market.

2:13.1

I think we took that 21% down move or so in the S&P cash.

2:20.3

And now we're kind of seeing some volatility, which is extremely emotional and attached to, again, topics like the tariffs.

2:23.5

And we are heading into earnings and so on and so forth. But I see the market as running its course through a bare market, which started at a peak of about 60150, just above 60,100 on the S&P 500. And I see us in a process of moving down towards

...

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