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Hello and welcome to episode 163 of the official establish the run.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I'm one of the co-founders here at ETR as I will be twice weekly for the next seven months or so.

This all season I am joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva and Evan. We aren't here to talk top shots. We aren't here to talk punks. We aren't here to talk stonks like seemingly everyone else is on the planet. No, I never thought it'd be unique to talk ball, but we are here to talk ball.

What's going on?

What's up? And we're going to start off with some coaching change analysis. You know, the rosters aren't in. I mean, the draft hasn't happened free agency hasn't happened cuts, you know, very few cuts have happened so far.

So it's going to be difficult to really truly apply, you know, past precedents that specific coaches have set and apply them to rosters because the rosters are far from set. But we do have, you know, background information on coaches.

And we can talk about that and talk about their general philosophies and, you know, the coaching staffs at this point are set.

Yeah, I mean, in no other sport do the coaches have as much of an impact on statistical performance as football, you know, like Kevin Durant changes team, Kevin Durant gets a new coach, James Hardin gets a new coach, a new team, whatever.

He's going to perform within his range, within his standard range, when NFL players change teams, man, when they change schemes, when they change coaches, it can change a ton. And so I think it's really, really important to start thinking about this stuff as early as possible, how we think it'll affect players some initial takes.

Before we get to today's show, I want to go over a few things related to the 2021 draft kit. Yes, we already have soft launched the 2021 draft kit already up our best ball rankings for underdog for FFPC for three man's for six man's for 12 man's on underdog eventually it will be everything we think you need to be ready for your draft content and rankings for every format.

If you bought our draft kit last year, you have access for free now until May, just log in, you'll be able to access everything. If you're new, it's the same price as last year 34 99 can check it out on the site.

All right, let's get to these coaching changes seven coaching changes at the head coaching spot this season heading into 2021 and Evan, let's start with the Falcons because you called it you said Arthur Smith was a major, major candidate to be the next head coach in the NFL former Titans offense coordinator.

So Falcons fire Dan Quinn after no and five start last year where he Morris leads them the rest of the way I thought they played better they ended up going for and seven, of course, under where he Morris.

Arthur Smith, I look like he looks old. If you would ask me how old Arthur Smith is, I would have been like, you know, 47 50 dudes only 38 and that's scary to me because I'm also 38 but Arthur Smith looks old man.

I'll give this for Arthur Smith and one thing is that that I think seem simple, but most NFL coaches don't do tailoring your scheme and your game plans, this skill set of your players, like I actually don't think it's overly easy to win with Derek Henry and Ryan Tana Hill, not that they aren't very good players because obviously they are, but you just can't roll any system out there when you're trying to build around Derek Henry and Ryan Tana Hill. So now he's with the Falcons Evan, what you think by the decision of the Falcons the higher Arthur Smith and how he fits in with this Atlanta team.

Yeah, you know, the Falcons are basically starting from scratch, which I think that they needed their rosters old, they have major salary cap problems that the Tom Demetroff, Dan Quinn Air obviously had run its course. So their new GM Terry Fano is a young guy relatively 40 40 years old coming from the Saints who have had a ton of scouting success lately and this guy Terry Fano is a scout by trade and then went with Arthur, Arthur Smith.

To run the show as head coach and we've obviously been big fans of Arthur Smith, you know, Ryan Tana Hill, Derek Henry, you mentioned Corey Davis this past year, John who Smith, all these guys had career years under Arthur Smith over the past two seasons.

He ran play action at a very high rate in Tennessee, which is promising. He did a good job of fitting his scheme, as you mentioned, a cater to his talent rather than trying to fit the players into a predetermined scheme.

The Falcons still have a ton of talent on offense, and I think that Arthur Smith is absolutely set up to maximize it. And I do think we'll see the Falcons make a more serious investment into boosting their running game because it's been a disaster since Kyle Shanahan left they finished 22nd or worse in run offense DVOA in three straight years, but I still trust Arthur Smith to, you know, create his offense.

He created his offense around his talent and the best talent in Atlanta is still in the passing game. And so I think that they're going to feature the passing game under the new staff.

I think we're going to see a lot more play action. I recently was looking at a long shot MVP bets Matt Ryan 100 to one.

I thought that that was pretty interesting because I still think that Julio's got a good amount left in the tank. We saw Calvin Ridley, you know, emerged as one of the 10 best wide receivers this past year. I think that Hayden Hurst might play a more prominent role in Arthur Smith's background is as a tight ends coach.

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