Episode 100: Which Stats Matter for Fantasy with Josh Hermsmeyer
Establish The Run Fantasy Football
Fantasy Football
4.8 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 31 August 2020
⏱️ 41 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Josh Hermsmeyer is an accomplished data scientist who developed the industry-leading Air Yards Buy Low Model (available exclusively on EstablishTheRun again this season) and writes for ESPN's 538. He sits down with Adam Levitan to discuss his model, using data in fantasy and which stats actually matter.
Editor's Note: Josh's Air Yards Buy Low Model is part of our In-Season Package. That also includes Silva's Matchups, all of Levitan's DFS content, Thorman's rankings and tons more. Head to www.EstablishTheRun.com for details.
TIMESTAMPS: Establishing the Buy Low Model (2:04 ) | Critiquing the models performance (7:20) | Does the data need context? (12:39) | Buy Low for QBs & RBs? (15:28) | Working with small sample sizes (20:45) | Stats that actually matter (23:44) | The evolution of NFL analytics (28:40) | Tips on getting into analytics (31:06 ) | Listener Questions (33:22) |
SHOW LINKS
How the Buy Low Model Works: https://establishtherun.com/hermsmeyer-how-the-buy-low-model-works/
Hermsmeyer: Which Stats Matter for WRs: https://establishtherun.com/hermsmeyer-what-metrics-matter-for-fantasy-wrs/
Silva’s Top 150: https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-top-150-2020/
NFL Bundle Package is Live: https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/
Silva’s Sleepers and Undervalued: https://establishtherun.com/2020-sleepers-and-undervalued/
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | I'm going to go and Hello and welcome to episode 100. Yes, 100 of the official Establish-The-run dot-com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I'm one of the co-fenders here at ECR. You may know me as the father of Jerry, the most beautiful beast in the world. And today we have a very special guest. This is a young man who has cultivated |
| 0:35.4 | wine, a young man who incites the rubs on Twitter, a young man who believes nothing matters. |
| 0:41.1 | It is of course Josh Hormsmeyer of established the run of 538 of the world |
| 0:46.4 | famous industry leading air yards by low model. Josh what's going on? That's a hell of an intro. I can't believe I'm in episode 100 and you called me a young man. |
| 0:57.8 | This is an epic day I can't wait to get going. |
| 1:01.0 | It really is a peak moment for your life if I don't say so myself. Okay on today's show we are going to talk to Josh about air yards. We're talking about what stats actually matter. We're talking about how we can use data better. |
| 1:14.3 | In our process, we're gonna talk about NFL teams and data. |
| 1:17.8 | Before we get into it, I know it's draft week. |
| 1:20.4 | I know you guys feel unprepared. I can't stress enough how much of an edge it is to come |
| 1:25.1 | into your draft with a set of updated rankings that we've poured meticulously over and |
| 1:29.2 | the player takes we've thought about for the last five months so if if you haven't yet, head to the site, check out our draft kit. It's just $35. And if you plan to play DFS, if you plan to play in season all year, we do have a bundle package live on the site lowest price we will have all season. |
| 1:45.1 | All right let's get to it. Oh by the way Josh was on the show with us 13 months ago or so |
| 1:51.4 | episode 4 he was on 4 and now he's on 100. So for background on him, his |
| 1:56.0 | wine, his cooking of meat and more Bylo model talk. Check out episode 4. Today though I want to focus |
| 2:01.8 | on the model and data. All right let's |
| 2:04.8 | start with this actually before we get into it let's explain to the people |
| 2:08.0 | who don't know what the Air Yards by low model is how you came up with it just generally speaking on the air yards yards by |
| 2:15.0 | the low model is how you came up with it, just generally speaking on the air yards, by low model, what it is and what its purposes. |
| 2:19.0 | Sure, so, you know, when you're looking at all the different positions, |
| 2:22.0 | you could possibly roster in |
| 2:23.8 | DFS and probably more specifically in a tournament situation and even more specifically |
| 2:29.3 | in a PPR tournament situation you know one of the hardest things to do each week is to |
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