Episode 1,129: chat with Aaron Schatz on DVOA projecting Commanders to be better than Philadelphia and more

The Al Galdi Podcast

Al Galdi

Football, Baseball, Sports, Basketball

5 • 1.5K Ratings

🗓️ 8 August 2025

⏱️ 50 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

23:02 - Guest: Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer for FTN Fantasy and editor of Aaron Schatz's FTN Football Almanac 2025, on his DVOA metric giving the Commanders the fourth-highest percent chance of winning the Super Bowl for the 2025 season and projecting the Commanders to be better than the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2025 season, why the fear of the Commanders having too many older players is overrated, the truth about how receivers age given the Terry McLaurin contract situation, whether Jayden Daniels' 2024 season is the greatest season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history, the difference between DVOA and EPA per play, whether Daniels has ascended to being bust-proof, how the way that the Commanders addressed their defense in the 2025 offseason was smart and much more 48:16 - Nationals: analysis of a 6-0 loss to the Athletics to conclude a 1-5 homestand during which the Nats got outscored, 61-23 The Nace Law Group, Accident & Injury Lawyers - 202-902-7611 and make sure that you mention that Al Galdi sent you Watch the BGO Blind Pig podcast on YouTube For advertising inquiries, email [email protected] Please note that time stamps may be slightly off depending on rotating national ads

Transcript

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0:00.0	And away we go, episode one thousand one hundred twenty-nine of the Al-Galdi podcast. It is Friday, August 8th, 2025. It is the day of the
0:26.0	Commanders' 2025 preseason opener. Commanders at the New England Patriots, Friday night at 730.
0:32.7	We are not expecting starters slash key players for the commanders to play much, if at all,
0:37.0	but that doesn't mean
0:38.2	that there is an intrigue with this game. We are expecting the quarterback plan for the commanders
0:42.4	to be the two guys battling for the QB3 spot. Sam Hartman and Josh Johnson, who will outplay
0:48.2	who and ultimately win that QB3 job? How will the star of 2025 commanders training camp seventh round rookie running back
0:55.8	Jacori Kroski Merritt, the man, known as Bill, do? How will another stand out in camp
1:01.8	receiver Jacori Brooks, an undrafted rookie out of the University of Louisville, do? How will
1:07.3	another stand out in camp safety Tyler Owens do? As we all know, the result of the game
1:12.4	means nothing, but the individual performances can mean something. Hello and welcome to this
1:17.4	Friday installment of the Al-Galdi podcast. The commanders on Thursday did not hold a full practice
1:22.4	this off their joint training camp practice at the Patriots on Wednesday. Next segment will speak with someone who is at that joint practice and who is very high on the
1:31.4	commanders for the 2025 season.
1:33.8	Aaron Schatz, who is the chief analytics officer for FT&F Fantasy and who is an NFL
1:39.8	analytics pioneer.
1:41.3	Aaron, to me, is on the Mount Rushmore of NFL Analytics. He created the groundbreaking
1:46.2	DVOA metric, which has the commanders with the fourth highest percent chance to win the Super Bowl
1:53.0	for this coming season, higher than that of the Philadelphia Eagles. Aaron will explain why DVOA is so bullish on the commanders. He'll
2:02.5	also explain why the fear of the commanders having too many older players is overrated, the truth about
2:07.7	how receivers age given the Terry McLaurin contract situation, whether Jaden Daniels'
2:13.5	2024 season is the greatest season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.
	...

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