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I am your host, Michael Covel, not filtered, raw, honest.

That's my passion.

There was something about episode 667 that I really liked.

Professor from Duke, and we talked about a concept called preference falsification.

In a nutshell, to restate it, people don't tell the truth.

I mean, if you ask people a poll question, most of the time they'll tell you the truth, but not always. So there's this

variability there. And I thought to myself, a few days later after the episode went live, I thought,

why do people love polls? So you're going to have an election. People are going to vote.

That's concrete. That's like going to vote. That's concrete.

That's like the traded price.

It's done.

It counts.

But why the preliminary?

Let me be frank here.

Why are we jerking ourselves off to actually think that the poll will correlate,

will be the same as the election day result.

How did we even get this into our mind? And I think if you can allow yourself to think about that example, the idea of, oh my gosh, look at the polls. The polls are telling us what's going to

happen, and then the election happens, and the

polls didn't tell a shit. If you can let that out of your mind and be more of a scientist about

it and just trust the data and trust that you can't predict about damn anything, you're much

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