Ep. 175: Dylan Evans Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
Michael Covel
4.6 • 732 Ratings
🗓️ 30 October 2013
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
My guest today is Dylan Evans, a British former academic and author who has written books on emotion and the placebo effect as well as the theories of Jacques Lacan.
The topic is risk intelligence.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
- Definition of risk intelligence
- Optimism bias
- Correlations between IQ and risk intelligence
- The Brandywine Raceway in Delaware and unconscious statistical modeling
- Probabilities and the nuclear power risk issue
- Making decisions on uncertain information
- The expected value mindset
- Bet sizing
- How luck is always part of the game
- Knowing when not to bet
- The hidden costs of trying to eliminate risk in a system where risk can never be eliminated
- The "calibration test" for risk intelligence.
Jump in!
---
I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.
To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/
You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/
Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast
My social media platforms:
Twitter: @covel
Facebook: @trendfollowing
LinkedIn: @covel
Instagram: @mikecovel
Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | This is Trend Following Radio, where great thinking comes alive. |
| 0:10.9 | Nobel Prize winners, legendary traders, bestselling authors, and the pros that know what drive us irrational human beings. |
| 0:21.1 | I am your host, Michael Cobell. |
| 0:24.0 | Not filtered, raw, honest. |
| 0:27.4 | That's my passion. |
| 0:32.9 | A really interesting guest today. |
| 0:36.3 | Dylan Evans, British academic and author. |
| 0:40.3 | He's written a good number of books. |
| 0:42.7 | The one subject, though, that he really touched on that caught my eye was this idea of risk intelligence. |
| 0:52.5 | Risk intelligence. |
| 1:00.9 | Expected value, bet sizing, luck, certainty, process versus outcome. |
| 1:08.3 | I think he does a fantastic job of getting at these issues. And these are the issues. |
| 1:12.7 | Mission critical, not only to trading, but to life. |
| 1:16.8 | Because look, when you're a trader, you've got to know your expected value. |
| 1:18.7 | You've got to know it. |
| 1:21.3 | You've got to have your bet sizing down. |
| 1:28.3 | But if you're a kid and your parents tell you you can't play dodgeball anymore, |
| 1:31.3 | your parents tell you that you've got to wear a helmet, perhaps, |
| 1:34.2 | please children. |
| 1:36.2 | I know the kids probably aren't listening to this today. |
| 1:39.1 | But if your parents start telling you that you have to wear a helmet to go to school and you can't play dodgeball, run away. |
| 1:42.8 | Find new parents. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Michael Covel, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Michael Covel and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.