Emerging Markets & the Turkish Lira: Assessing the Risks & Opportunities | Paul McNamara

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Business, Government

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 23 November 2020

⏱️ 54 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 165 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Paul McNamara, an Investment Director at global asset manager GAM who serves as the company's lead manager on hedge fund, emerging market bond and currency long-only strategies.

The first half of this conversation focuses on the macro forces driving EM overall, including how the latest vaccines could affect the global recovery and the service and export sectors in emerging markets, the global debt picture and its impact on economic recovery, the resumption of trade, etc.

The second half of our conversation focuses exclusively on one emerging market country in particular: Turkey. Turkey is a uniquely important country, not least because of its geostrategic positioning as a gateway between east and west, straddling multiple important theatres of conflict, diplomacy, and trade that matter greatly to all the major powers, including the United States.

What happens to Turkey's economy, the country's ability to service its debts, and the value of its currency are materially important for its geopolitical stability and for the stability of its neighbors and NATO allies.

To that effect, we examine some of the latest government-family drama in Turkey involving the president's son-in-law Berat Albayrak and the significance of his ouster as Minister of Finance and Treasury, along with the implications for Turkey's economy. We also discuss the recent 475 basis point rate hike by the Turkish central bank and what this means for the economy, domestic bank lending, and the value of the Lira going forward.

Lastly, given the turmoil in relations between Turkey, the US, and Europe, it's an open question as to how an incoming Biden administration will deal with this important NATO ally and if sanctions could be used against Ankara in the event that diplomatic headway isn't made and Turkey's president continues to go his own way on issues that are vital to both the US and Europe.

You can access the afterthought segment, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 11/19/2020

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	Today's episode of Hidden Forces is made possible by listeners like you.
0:04.4	For more information about this week's episode or for easy access to related programming
0:09.7	visit our website at hidden Forces. I.O. and subscribe to our free email list.
0:16.4	If you listen to the show on your Apple Podcast app, remember, you can give us a review.
0:21.5	Each review helps more people find the show and join our
0:24.9	amazing community. And with that, please enjoy this week's episode. And the What's up everybody? My guest on this episode of Hidden Forces is Paul McNamara.
0:54.2	Paul is an investment director at Global Asset Manager GAM and serves as the company's lead
0:59.7	manager on hedge fund, emerging market bond, and Currency Long Only Strategies.
1:06.1	My objectives with this episode have been twofold.
1:09.6	Number one, I wanted to make sure that anyone, regardless of his or her background, would be able to follow the conversation and come away with a deeper appreciation and understanding of what emerging markets are, the forces driving performance in EM risk assets and currency,
1:27.2	and how managers like Paul invest in these markets.
1:30.9	My second objective was to make this conversation useful to people like Paul and others who are invested, looking to invest in, or for one reason or another are already somewhat familiar with emerging markets,
1:44.8	their peculiarities, and the unique conditions which can make investing in these markets
1:49.7	profitable for investors.
1:51.6	The first half of our conversation focuses on the macro forces
1:56.8	driving EM overall. Things like how the latest vaccines could affect the global recovery and the service and export sectors in
2:04.8	emerging markets, the global debt picture and its impact on economic recovery,
2:09.2	the resumption of trade, and other such factors.
2:13.2	The second half of our conversation focuses exclusively on one emerging market country
2:19.0	in particular, and that's Turkey, a country that we've covered in depth on a number of previous episodes,
2:26.0	most recently in my conversation with Sunerchap Thai on episode 152.
2:32.0	Turkey is a uniquely important country, not least because of its geostrategic positioning as a gateway between
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Demetri Kofinas, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Demetri Kofinas and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.