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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Emerging market equities poised to overtake developed market equities

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 15 September 2023

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Developed market equities have long dominated global equity markets, but that’s set to change in the coming decades. Kevin Daly, co-head of CEEMEA Economics in Goldman Sachs Research, explains why EM capital markets are likely to rise significantly.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Developed market equities have long dominated global equity markets, but is that set to change in the coming decades.

0:06.5

The big picture finding is that the M capital markets in particular are likely to rise very significantly.

0:13.0

Not only is the MGDP rising,

0:15.0

but actually their equity market capitalization ratios are also rising,

0:19.0

so you get two bangs for your buck as a word.

0:22.0

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges. In this episode we're taking a look at the future of global capital markets

0:37.2

and whether stock markets in emerging countries are poised to overtake those in

0:41.7

the US and other developed countries in the coming years.

0:44.8

To discuss that and the potential investor opportunities that such a shift might provide,

0:49.0

I'm sitting down with my colleague Kevin Daly, co-headed the Economics team covering Central and Eastern Europe, the

0:54.3

Middle East and Africa for Goldman Sachs research.

0:57.0

Kevin, welcome back to the program.

0:58.0

Hey Allison, good to see you.

1:00.0

Kevin, the last time you were on this podcast, which if I recall was early this year, you spoke

1:04.6

about what the global economy could look like in 2075, and you've done a lot of work on the

1:09.7

longer term economic outlook.

1:12.2

First, just catch us up on what are some of your key

1:14.4

takeaways and what your analysis has shown.

1:17.4

So there's four key themes that we emphasize.

1:20.5

The first was that we expected global growth to slow over time to a little below 3% driven by a slowdown in population growth.

1:30.0

So population growth globally has fallen in the last 50 years from 2% per year to 1%.

1:36.2

Over the next 50 years it's projected to fall to basically zero.

...

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