It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2025. The Election Day, what are the betting markets saying,

nuking the filibuster, barely back on the menu, and a portrait of persecution in Nigeria.

Next on the AM update.

It is the election day in a few key races around the country, notably out east in New Jersey.

Here are what the betting markets like Polly Market have to say about what they think the winner of these races will be.

New Jersey gubernatorial election, Mikey Sherrill, the Democrat with an 86% chance of beating Republican Jack Shatterrelli.

86% to Shatterrelli's 14%.

I think of any of the races, the key races that are being tracked today.

I think this is probably actually the best opportunity for a Republican to pull an upset.

In Virginia, that gubernatorial race is basically over if the betting markets have to say anything about it.

Abigail Spanberger, the just rabid leftist Democrat, 98% chance of winning to 2% for winsome Earl Sears in the Virginia Attorney General Election race.

Republican Jason Mayores, according to Polly Market, has a 57% chance of beating Jay Jones.

That would be the Democrat murder fantasist, which is a word I think that I made up.

57% odds for that Republican to beat Jay Jones again.

That is the key race for me.

If Republicans can't beat somebody who is on the record in text messages fantasizing about the murder of Republican lawmakers,

I don't know what Republicans can win in the state of Virginia.

And of course, this one is the big one in the three-way race in the New York City mayoral election.

Zoran Mamdani, the Islamianist with a 91.5% chance, according to Polly Market, of winning that

race.

Why am I focusing on the betting markets this morning?

Well, over the past few elections, they have been decent indicators of actually who

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