Hello and welcome to episode 995 of Effectively Wildly Daily Podcast from Baseball

Perspectives, presented by our Patreon supporters and the play index at baseballreference.com.

I am a slightly under the weather Ben Lindbergh of the ringer joined by a similar of ESPN.

Hello, so your formula for predicting what percentage of his asking price a free agent would get

has been vindicated a couple times, right? Since you published that article last month, you made a

prediction about worldest chatments contract based on your finding that historically free agents have

gotten 87.5% of their asking price, both in terms of dollars and years. And so you made a prediction

for a worldest chatments contract that was what within a couple million of what he actually got.

Yeah, a million off. Yeah, so there was another one, right? Was there another one that you checked

it with? Anyway, I don't know, but it worked well in that one, but in Ivanova's case, I don't know if

it worked so well. Oh, what was he seeking? Well, he was seeking five years and 70 million.

Okay, yeah. He got three in 26. No, I don't know whether you maybe get off on a technicality here

because I think the five years and 70 million was his opening extension offer in late September.

So technically, I guess he wasn't a free agent, although you'd have to think that if that's what he

was asking for in an extension, he would have been asking for what, you know, about the same, maybe

maybe more. Who knows if he was on the open market a month later, but yeah, he did not. He was like

one of those guys who wants the winter started. Everyone said, oh, he's going to get a huge deal,

or he'll get a bigger deal than he should, or he could be one of the potential guys that people

spend too much on. Like, there was a Crasnick survey question about who was going to get too big a

deal. And I think you guessed him first, right? That he would be the one that executives would say

would get the biggest deal. Anyway, he didn't get that big a deal. Yeah, I had some September's in my

in my data. So that would, I would consider that to count. And the thing about the 80-ish

...