4.4 • 2.2K Ratings
🗓️ 7 March 2025
⏱️ 72 minutes
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Barry speaks with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group's Global Chief Economist. Prior to this role at BCG, Philipp advised financial institutions and governments at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as well as McKinsey & Company. He was also Chief Economist at Stanford C. Bernstein. He is a frequent contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum, and various other business publications. Philipp also leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute. On this episode, Barry and Philipp discuss structural changes to the global economy, doom-saying, and his book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.
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0:00.0 | There are thousands of tech and business podcasts out there, but there's just one that you could count on for a weekly dose of the future. |
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0:11.8 | This show brings you the world's most influential people, movers who have a track record of being both early and right, like Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak or co-founders Mark |
0:23.5 | Andresen and Ben Horowitz, not to mention folks you typically don't get to hear from, like the very |
0:28.7 | first chief technology officer of the CIA, from the science and supply of GLP-1s to what drove |
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0:56.1 | This is Masters in Business with Barry Rittoltz on Bloomberg Radio. |
1:02.9 | This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, really fascinating conversation with Philip Carlson Slezak. |
1:12.9 | He's got a really interesting background. |
1:22.1 | Chief economist at Sanford Bernstein, worked at the OECD, began at McKinsey, ended up as global chief economist for the Boston Consultant Group, and really approaches economic analysis from a very different perspective, |
1:31.8 | critical of the industry's over-reliance on models, which have proven themselves to be not great predictors of what happens next, |
1:43.3 | especially when the future in any way differs from the past. |
1:49.0 | And so when we have things like the dot-com implosion or especially internal to the market, |
1:56.0 | the financial crisis of 0809, and even COVID models just don't give you a good assessment. |
2:05.1 | And he describes how he reached this conclusion in his book, |
2:09.7 | shocks, crises, and false alarms, how to assess true macroeconomic risk. |
2:14.7 | He calls out a lot of people who get things wrong, especially the doomsayers, |
2:20.0 | who not only have been forecasting recessions incorrectly for, I don't know, the better part of |
2:25.8 | 15 years, most especially since COVID, but their models just simply don't allow them to |
2:33.1 | understanding a dynamic changing global |
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