Welcome to the commentary magazine Daily podcast for Tuesday July 21st, 2020.

I'm John Pajor, the editor of commentary with me as always executive editor, a green

wall of high a hi John senior writer Christine Rosen, high Christine, and associate editor,

Noah Rossman, high Noah.

Hi, you're not going to hear this from anybody else.

So I'm just going to tell you and you can call me a denier all you like, but all the evidence

that I am seeing digging through and disaggregating data suggests that the surge, the coronavirus

surge that we have seen over the past month appears to have peaked and maybe now going

down and that surge of course is a surge not of deaths, but of cases, the, obviously

the death toll rose, but nowhere near where it was even in New York alone in April and

the caseload appears to have peaked and is now going down in state by state.

So as we said yesterday, what you are seeing the times is the argument that the increase

in the number of positive tests indicates that we are headed for, you know, future present,

we are in a disaster and we are headed for disasters on toll that are following and that

is simply not being borne out by the data on a day to day basis.

A lot of data that is being collected is back dating information that was not added to

the roles in terms of both caseloads, hospitalizations and deaths.

And so the numbers are inflated when you say what is the change over 7, 14 or 21 days

because they are putting in various states, they are assigning deaths to COVID and hospitalizations

to COVID that were, that took place weeks and weeks ago.

So that is good news and we are not getting the good news, we are not being told that it

is good news and I don't want to really characterize why that would be but people should understand

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