Does Polling Still Work?

Let's Find Common Ground

USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future

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5 • 2.7K Ratings

🗓️ 26 September 2023

⏱️ 58 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

CPF Co-Directors Bob Shrum and Mike Murphy join Fall 2023 CPF Fellows Arnon Mishkin and Reince Priebus for a conversation on polling and its ability or inability to predict voting outcomes as the 2024 presidential race approaches.

Featuring:

Arnon Mishkin: Political Analyst and Director of the Fox News Election Decision Team; Fall 2023 Fellow, USC Center for the Political Future
Reince Priebus: Former White House Chief of Staff and Chairman of the Republican National Committee; Fall 2023 Fellow, USC Center for the Political Future
Bob Shrum: Director, Center for the Political Future; Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics, USC Dornsife
Mike Murphy: Co-Director, Center for the Political Future; NBC Political Analyst

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Bully Pulpit from the University of Southern California Center for the Political Future.
0:11.8	Our podcast brings together America's top politicians, journalists, academics, and strategists from across the political spectrum for discussions on hot button issues where we respect
0:22.0	each other and respect the truth. We hope you enjoy these conversations. Good afternoon.
0:31.1	I'm Bob Shrum, the director of the Center for the Political Future here at USC Dornside.
0:36.6	With me as my colleague and friend,
0:38.7	our co-director, Mike Murphy.
0:40.7	And whether you're here in person or on Zoom or on Facebook,
0:45.1	you welcome you to this event and the latest issue of our bully pulpit podcast,
0:50.9	where we'll be discussing the question knows polling still work.
0:55.5	I'll talk with the panel along with Mike for about 40 minutes and then turn to questions from the audience. The center
1:01.5	is committed to respectful dialogue across our political differences, and I ask everyone here to
1:07.4	abide by that standard. Our guests today are two of our outstanding full
1:12.0	23 fellows, and I'm very proud they've joined us. Arnard, Michigan, is the groundbreaking guru
1:18.8	in charge of calling elections at Fox News, and we'll talk about that later because he's really
1:24.7	changed that whole process. Righte's prebus is the first six-year chairman of the Republican National Committee,
1:31.5	who finished as the winning as chairman of either political party.
1:35.0	He was also the first and former White House chief of staff
1:38.5	under former President Donald Trump.
1:40.6	So let me kick off this session with our question. We'll go first to rights.
1:45.8	National polling in the recent past has been notably off from actual outcomes. In 2016,
1:52.3	most polls said Hillary Clinton would win. In 2020, polls forecast a much bigger Biden margin
1:58.2	in the popular vote. And in the 2022 midterms, polls or at least
	...

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