Does It Really Matter Who the Democratic Nominee Is?

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

The New Yorker

President, Barack, News, Politics, Wnyc, Obama, Lizza, Washington, Wickenden

4.3 • 3.9K Ratings

🗓️ 20 February 2020

⏱️ 24 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at the Niskanen Center, in Washington, D.C., thinks that most pollsters and forecasters rely on outdated ideas about how candidates succeed. She argues that the outcome has far less to do with the candidates’ ideology than we think it does. Her perspective has been controversial, but in July, 2018, months before the midterm elections, her model predicted the Democratic victory in the House with an accuracy unmatched by conventional forecasters. And it suggests that Democrats should stop worrying about losing, and focus on firing up their voters.

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1:11.9	This is the political scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and guests about
1:16.9	politics. It's Thursday, February 20th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of The New Yorker.
1:23.9	Last night's Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas was rowdier than usual with the candidates tearing into each other rather than into Donald Trump.
1:33.3	I'd like to talk about who we're running against. A billionaire who calls women fat broads and horse-faced lesbians.
1:41.3	And no, I'm not talking about Donald Trump. I'm talking about Mayor Bloomberg.
1:46.0	Democrats are not going to win if we have a nominee who has a history of hiding his tax returns,
1:55.0	of harassing women, and of supporting racist policies like redlining and stop and frisk. Look, I'll support
2:03.6	whoever the Democratic nominee is, but understand this. Democrats take a huge risk if we just
2:11.0	substitute one arrogant billionaire for another. Bernie Sanders is still the frontrunner,
2:17.0	even though moderate voters hate his Democratic
	...

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