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This is Scientific Americans 60 Second Science. I'm Wait Gibbs.

Public health experts shake their heads at the chaotic political divisions and inconsistent

policies that have undermined attempts to control the spread of COVID-19 through much of the

world. But a new study by mathematicians in Germany and the UK has applied the tools of chaos theory

to show that divisions of a constructive kind could actually bring the pandemic under control much more effectively.

The research was done at the University of Oxford, Gurdiggen University,

and the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-organization.

The group built a mathematical model of coronavirus transmission that accounts for the inherently

random ways that the number of infections fluctuates over time.

They noticed that case counts within small populations sometimes drop all the way to zero,

as long as people are wearing masks, social distancing, and taking the other standard precautions.

Those spontaneous extinctions of the disease made them wonder,

if the small towns or counties did more to isolate themselves from neighboring communities,

would that sometimes extinguish COVID-19 enough that they could lift restrictions

and resume more of normal life for longer periods until the

disease popped up again? A rigorous mathematical analysis showed that, indeed, this kind of

divide and conquer strategy can work, at least in theory. They published that result in the journal

...