Did tariffs make a difference in Trump’s trade war?

Sinica Podcast

Kaiser Kuo

Culture, China News, Hangzhou, Chinese, International Relations, Chongqing, Beijing, Sichuan, Currentaffairs, China, Politics, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, China Economy, News, China Politics, Business, Film, Shenzhen

4.8 • 676 Ratings

🗓️ 21 October 2021

⏱️ 78 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week on Sinica: Did the Trump-era tariffs have their intended effects? In other words, did they prompt companies to pull up stakes in China and re-shore jobs to the United States? Kaiser chats with two political scientists, Samantha Vortherms of UC Irvine and Jack Zhang, director of the University of Kansas’s Trade War Lab, about the paper they recently published with the intention of answering that question. The paper is called “Political Risk and Firm Exit: Evidence from the US-China Trade War.” They share their findings and explore the paper’s policy implications.

4:16 – Sam and Jack offer their thoughts on U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Katherine Tai’s recent speech on U.S.-China trade

10:05 – Distinguishing between tariffs and other aspects of the trade war

13:46 – Previously, on the U.S.-China Trade War: A brief recap of the trade war to date

18:35 – The Foreign Invested Enterprises in China dataset

23:14 – A summary of the paper’s findings: Tariffs did not increase the likelihood of firms exiting

47:15 – What explains the relative reticence of affected firms when it comes to voicing opposition to tariffs?

55:36 – What would you tell Katherine Tai and Gina Raimondo if they were your captive audience?

A transcript of this interview is available on SupChina.com.

Recommendations:

Sam: The podcast Invisibilia, and specifically, a recent episode called “International Friend of Mystery.”

Jack: The Masters of Chinese Economics and Political Affairs (MCEPA) degree program at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy, and Amitav Ghosh’s River of Smoke (part of the Ibis series).

Kaiser: A Song for Arbonne, a semi-historical fantasy novel by Guy Gavriel Kay.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Cynical Podcast, the weekly discussion of current affairs in China, produced in partnership with SubChina.
0:14.6	Subscribe to SubChina's daily access newsletter to keep on top of all the latest news from China from hundreds of different news sources,
0:21.4	or check out all the original writing on our site at supChina.com, including reported stories,
0:26.9	editorials, and regular columns, as well as a growing library of videos and, of course, podcasts.
0:32.3	We cover everything from China's fraught foreign relations to its ingenious entrepreneurs,
0:37.3	from the ongoing repression of Uyghurs and other Muslim people in China's fraught foreign relations to its ingenious entrepreneurs, from the ongoing
0:37.8	repression of Uyghurs and other Muslim people in China's Xinjiang region, to China's ambitious
0:42.7	effort to eliminate poverty.
0:44.9	It's a feast of business, political, and cultural news about a nation that is reshaping the
0:50.0	world.
0:50.8	We cover China with neither fear nor favor.
0:54.0	I'm Kaiser Guo coming to you day for my home
0:56.1	in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. A much-anticipated talk last week by U.S. Trade Representative
1:02.3	Catherine Tai, delivered at CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
1:07.6	offered the tantalizing possibility that we'd get a first look at the results
1:12.0	of the Biden administration's seemingly interminable policy review on China trade.
1:17.4	Alas, with the talkover and with Secretary of Commerce, Gina Romando, having given some
1:22.1	somewhat confusing interviews and a speech of her own, the picture just doesn't look that
1:26.5	much clearer now,
1:27.5	at least as far as I can see.
1:29.6	Now, while both Ramondo and Ty did make some very encouraging remarks with Thai introducing
1:34.7	new words like recoupling and phrases like durable coexistence, she also said that the Trump
	...

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