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Did Macro Kill Crypto? with MacroAlf

Bankless

Bankless

Technology, News, Tech News

4.71.2K Ratings

🗓️ 1 November 2022

⏱️ 87 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Alf is the former head of a $20B investment portfolio, a passionate global macro investor, and the author of a free newsletter called, “The Macro Compass," available on Substack.

On this episode, Alf helps us understand macro in a digestible way. What’s in our potential future? How bad will it hurt? How long will it last? Answers to these questions and much more in the interview.

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Topics Covered

0:00 Intro
8:00 What to Know About Macro
11:03 Tiers of Money
13:07 Deflationary Timeline
15:20 The Housing Market
17:33 The Inflation Remedy
19:54 Indicators
23:10 Global Credit Impulse Cycle
30:25 Can We Have a Soft Landing?
34:50 How Bad Will This Hurt?
39:29 Volatility in the Bond Market
52:18 Switching to Crypto Assets?
55:57 DXY
1:02:09 Bond/Crypto Market Cycles
1:05:30 What Will Make the Fed Pivot?
1:09:36 The Long-Term
1:15:45 Probability & Adapting
1:19:08 Generating Productivity
1:22:27 The Internet’s Unlock
1:23:40 Why Macro is Important
1:25:40 Action Items & Disclaimers

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Resources:

MacroAlf
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf 

The Macro Compass
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ 

Is It 2021 Again?
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/back-to-2001#details 

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Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures 

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Congratulations. Welcome to another state of the nation. It's very important topic, a topic that is top of mind for I think everyone in crypto right now.

0:10.0

Did macro kill crypto? Can crypto recover as crypto investors? What do we need to know about the macro environment? Is this going to be like 2008 all over again? Maybe something worse?

0:20.0

What happens to our risk on assets like crypto? When are they going to recover? All right, so who's our guest today, David?

0:26.0

The guest on the show today, Ryan, is this guy named macro elf who runs a macro focused newsletter called the macro compass. And he has produced some of the most just well reasoned and thoughtful macro analysis that I've seen the last six months or so.

0:41.0

And it really, to me, answers the question, what does it take? What does what needs to happen for risk on assets, our precious crypto assets to reach all time highs again?

0:52.0

What needs to happen before that happens? And the answer, Ryan, is kind of a lot of things. And so we go through that in the show today and like all of the things that we need to get past in order for us to accept risk again as like not just like investors in the crypto world, we all already accept risk.

1:11.0

But what does it take for the rest of the world to also accept risk? Because that's what it's going to take for them to come back and pay attention to the crypto industry.

1:18.0

And so that's really what we're diving into here on the show, right?

1:21.0

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1:30.0

You could search for uncleaned air drops to get notified when you match anyone. David, I found a lot of money using air earnify over the years. And I know you have to because I think you're the person who first told me about this tool.

1:41.0

Yeah, so I previously have been a chaotic user of many, many Ethereum addresses. I've been known to just migrate Ethereum addresses over and over and over again. And so I found earnify especially useful to just go and historically look at all my all the all the money that I can go like dust sweep using earnify.

1:59.0

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2:10.0

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2:17.0

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2:23.0

There's been over a one billion dollars in earnings that people found in the question.

2:29.0

I have I found for uniswap air drops like three months ago because of earnify.

2:35.0

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2:43.0

There's a link at the show now. Bankless dot cc slash earnify you spell that E a R N I F I you'd find out more about this.

2:52.0

Alright, so David, we're going to get into this episode. What should people pay attention to as we talk to macro health?

2:59.0

So this episode with macro elf is one part macro elf telling us the current state of macro markets, which is useful, but it's also one part a classroom.

3:07.0

And so I learned a lot while doing some of my research for this episode with macro elf and he's just a great educator that is simultaneously teaching us about how the macro world works as he's also telling about telling us about how it is right now.

3:21.0

And so listeners should just kind of pay attention and like be prepared to get your learn on about you're going to learn about the structure of macro markets and you're going to you're going to be able to understand the answer to the question.

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