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This is the political scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics.

It's Friday, December 7th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of The New Yorker.

The Arab Spring began two years ago, and the region is more unsettled than ever.

On Monday, President Obama warned President Bashar Assad of Syria.

The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic

mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable.

I've asked Dexter Filkins and John Lee Anderson to help

explain the various uprisings in the region and the ramifications for U.S. policy. Both of them have

reported heavily from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere over the last decade.

John Lee, you were in Libya during the NATO-led operation that brought down Gaddafi, and at the time, it was clear that the same approach would not apply to Syria.

But look at where we are now.

What are the chances that Assad's government will use chemical weapons, if anybody can make that calculation?

...