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The President’s Inbox

Demography and World Power, With Nicholas Eberstadt

The President’s Inbox

Council on Foreign Relations

Politics, News:politics, News

4.5698 Ratings

🗓️ 7 November 2023

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in political economy at the American Enterprise Institute, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how demographic trends in China, Russia, and the United States will shape and constrain global geopolitical competition.   Mentioned on the Podcast   Nicholas Eberstadt, “America Hasn’t Lost Its Demographic Advantage,” Foreign Affairs   Nicholas Eberstadt, “Can America Cope with Demographic Decline?,” National Review   Nicholas Eberstadt, “China’s Collapsing Birth and Marriage Rates Reflect a People’s Deep Pessimism,” Washington Post   Nicholas Eberstadt, Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications   Nicholas Eberstadt, “Russian Power in Decline,” Milken Institute Review   Nicholas Eberstadt, “The China Challenge: A Demographic Predicament Will Plague the Mainland for Decades,” Discourse   Nicholas Eberstadt, “With Great Demographics Comes Great Power,” Foreign Affairs   Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery, “A Revolution Is Coming for China’s Families,” The Wall Street Journal   Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery, “China’s Shrinking Families,” Foreign Affairs   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/demography-and-world-power-nicholas-eberstadt

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the President's Inbox, a CFR podcast about the foreign policy challenges facing the United States.

0:10.1

I'm Jim Lindsay, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

0:14.0

This week's topic is Demography and World Power.

0:23.2

With me to discuss critical demographic trends in China, Russia, and the United States,

0:29.0

and how they might shape geopolitical competition, is Nicholas Eversstadt.

0:34.2

Nick is the Henry Wendt, in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.

0:39.3

He is also a senior advisor to the National Bureau of Asian Research.

0:44.3

Nick has written extensively on demographics and economic development generally,

0:49.3

and more specifically on international security in Asia. Nick simply is the best at what he does.

0:58.8

Nick, thank you very much for joining me. It's a pleasure. Thank you for inviting me, Jim.

1:03.6

Nick, you have heard the phrase demography is destiny, probably more times than you care to.

1:14.5

I want to actually explore that claim. And can you first tell us what do we mean by demography? And to what extent does it shape our destinies?

1:21.6

Well, demography is a, it's a word that based in Greek parts, but it's a French word from La Demography

1:30.2

means the study of people, the study of populations. The phrase demography is destiny, not surprisingly,

1:38.5

it sounds a little bit French, doesn't it? It's associated correctly or incorrectly with the great

1:43.6

19th century polymath, Auguste Kant.

1:47.0

He was, I guess, a genius, but he was also a Frenchman and a socialist, and I'm neither a Frenchman or a socialist.

1:54.0

So if I were to make an American friendly amendment to that aphorism, I'd try to be a little bit more pragmatic about it. I'd say that

2:02.5

population change slowly and gradually, but also quite unforgivingly, changes the realm of the

2:12.3

possible in social, economic, and global affairs.

2:27.0

And so what I would insert that is missing from the glorious adastra of Demography as Destiny is human agency.

2:35.0

There is a realm of possibilities in human affairs, and you have to take that into account.

...

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