Demographics II: Tailwinds and Tenterhooks (w/ Amlan Roy & Raoul Pal)

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 1 February 2021

⏱️ 80 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

RealVision Live Replay, Recorded on September 14, 2020.Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance.. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:28.1	Te's and sees apply. My history with Am Lan Roy, my next demographic guest goes back 20 years when I was captivated by his work when I was running a hedge fund, he just
0:45.6	came across this demographic understanding that most people didn't have in their frameworks
0:51.6	and I thought he was brilliant. And him and I have kept in touch ever since and I really
0:56.7	wanted to find out how he's thinking about all of the demographic issues because he's definitely got a different spin because he goes into the micro demographics
1:05.6	and it gives you somewhat more granularity on how this all plays out and how it affects us all. I'm going to Amlan, it's great to get you on Real Vision. You and I used to see each other a lot when I was at
1:29.2	GLG and you are my go-to guy, the only guy who understood demographics and you were very, very
1:35.7	influential in my thinking back then and we've kind of loosely kept in touch over time and I just
1:40.5	you know thank you for coming here. I'd love for you A to talk about what you do now and just a little bit about yourself. You know, the whole story of how you got to where you are and then we'll dig in a bit about your
1:55.1	philosophy demographics and how you look at the world. Thanks a lot Raoul. It's a
1:59.2	pleasure seeing you after many many years you and Sonny Cay, me in a room in London while the weather out there doesn't look as bleak as it does
2:08.2	350 days of the year.
2:09.8	We're close to 30 degrees.
2:12.2	Maybe the setting and the gods have listened to us.
2:15.0	A lot of my life and career has been a series of, I would say, unplanned incidents and bearing down different tracks.
	...

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