All right, Alexander, let's talk about the Chinese economy. We have imports falling. We have exports falling. We have deflation. What is going on with the economy in China?

Yeah, I think that this is now becoming an important story because of course when China came out of

lockdowns most people including myself by the way anticipated that there would be a huge

surge in demand and that the Chinese economy would take off and that we'd be looking at a

period of double-digit growth in China that has absolutely absolutely not happened. It's clear that just as elsewhere

around the world, in Europe in particular, the lockdown situation has actually had a long-term

effect of depressing demand and depressing economic activity. The same has happened in China as well. And I would add

perhaps to an even greater extent, given that the lockdowns were so prolonged there. So it is

taking China a very long time to shake off the lockdown, the lockdown hangover, if you like.

And that depression in demand is resulting in declines in Chinese imports.

Now, one can't just explain this by the fact that there are problems with

lockdowns, you know, that there's this after effect of the lockdowns, because it's also clear

that Chinese exports are now falling and they're falling fast. And the reason that is happening, and this is, I think, an important thing to understand, is clearly there is growing collapse in demand across the global economy.

And that points to my mind, in fact, it's the strongest sign that a major recession is on the way.

I mean, a major recession in Europe, in the United States also.

People have been talking about a soft landing there, but Chinese exports to the US are falling as well.

All of this is now becoming cumulative,

so we look like we're heading towards a major recession.

Now, the fact that Chinese export revenues are also declining

is creating a feedback loop into China.

It means that revenues from exports are depressed at a time when internal

demand continues to be depressed. That is what is leading to deflation because the economy is subdued.

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