Good morning, everyone.

The Simple Handicap for Monday, December 6th.

Thank you for making me a part of your morning.

A very happy Sunday evening to you if you're listening to this right as the lines come out.

I am recording this as early as I've done all season, 5.30 p.m. Mountain Standard Time.

I hit record.

So if you are listening just before the Sunday night or between

the Chiefs and the Broncos, hopefully you had a good NFL Sunday. For me, three and one. Now 90 and 45

on the season, holding steady right at 66, 67%. Good results. Two bets pending for the week,

New England plus three, over 41. and i think it makes sense to start with this game now i've talked about it a ton i broke down the handicap a couple times last week with the patriots run offense against this bill's defense as well as the other side with the Bill's offense against his Patriots defense

and what I expect from both of those things. But I never really hinted at nor suggested

the total was going to be bet. I kind of like said I was waiting on how far this would come down.

And yesterday I'm looking at the screen and it's coming down more and more and more.

I mean, it got to 41.

And you've heard me probably say it a hundred times, but it's worth repeating again.

When you're betting on the NFL, the biggest impact from a weather perspective is always the wind.

And when you're monitoring wind, 20 miles per hour

is the magic number. Any time that a game has sustained winds of 20 miles per hour or higher,

the average closing total, the last 10 years, is 39 and a half points.

This game was at 46.

The wins are projected to be sustained at 20 miles per hour or slightly higher.

The adjustment happened all week long.

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