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CNBC's "Fast Money"

Debating A Fed Rate Cut… And Back-To-School Blues 8/4/25

CNBC's "Fast Money"

CNBC

Business, Investing, News

4.31.2K Ratings

🗓️ 4 August 2025

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The traders weigh the odds of a Fed rate cut on the horizon, tech earnings continue as Palantir reports Q2 results, and with back-to-school season looming, how can retailers hold up against Trump’s new tariff rates. Plus, Robotaxi expansion revving up with a Baidu-Lyft collaboration. Fast Money Disclaimer

Transcript

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0:00.0

Live in the Nezac markets, in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Back in rally mode, stopped all but erasing the losses from Friday's sell-off as hopes for September rate cut continue to grow. How much can we expect the central bank to move this year? What will it mean for markets and rates? We'll debate that. And the back-to-school blues. Retailers bracing for a busy shopping season with the impact of tariffs top of mind, how they're setting up for September and how to trade the stocks. Plus two of the years' hottest stocks on the move after earnings, Figma falls in its third day of trading, and the headline prompting one of our traders to load up on shares of lift. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, and Guy Adami. And we start off with that quick turnaround in stocks. The ESFELB jumping almost 1.5% today, nearly erasing all the losses from a post-jobs report to sell off at the end of the week. The Dow gaining 585 points while the NASDAQ jumped nearly 2%.

0:37.5

Treasury yields meantime ticked lower. post-jobs reports sell off at the end of the week. The Dow gaining 585 points while the

0:54.7

NASDAG jumped nearly 2%. Treasury yields meantime ticked lower with the yield on the benchmark 10

0:59.5

year hitting its lowest level in three months as chances of a Fed rate cut in September rose even

1:04.8

further. So is the central bank destined to make a move sooner rather than later? And will that be the

1:09.6

green light for an even bigger market rally through the end of the year?

1:12.4

This almost goes back to our game when you get the data. Yeah, I like this game. If I told you, oh. Is bad news, good news, or is bad news? Bad news. Yeah, we've finished the game. I mean, we have a lot of games. I thought it was in our heads. Early in the week. A lot of gait.

1:07.1

A lot of tomfoolery here.

1:08.4

But in terms of the bad jobs report on Friday, bad news is bad news.

1:12.6

And today, maybe bad news is good news. The bad news on Friday, I think, and if you had played the other game, if you had told me Friday what was going to happen. That's another good game. The bad news on Friday, to me, came in the form of a Fed governor stepping down and the BLS firing, which I thought was market

1:46.6

moving and I think it spoke volumes as to what's going on. But clearly, I think what the market

1:51.2

came to the realization was it's more about what the Fed might potentially do with a softening job

1:56.3

market. Now, softening job market suggests the economy again is probably getting a lot weaker before

2:02.3

things start to pick up again. And I don't think a 6,300 or so S&P has any of that priced in.

2:08.7

By the way, we talked about the bad news bears a couple times last week, too. I mean, I think we named

2:12.4

more people on the bad news bears than have ever been named on financial TV and ever again.

2:17.0

So let's get back to the market. I do think you had a case here where the bad news being than have ever been named on financial TV and ever again. So let's get back to the

2:17.9

market. I do think you had a case here where the bad news being good news is where we were this

2:22.9

morning. We also had a chance to assess an earning season that's been extraordinary. I mean,

2:27.1

you've beaten 9% or so in terms of where earnings are, and you've beaten around 7.5% on the top line, about 4% on the

2:36.0

bottom line. There are dynamics in every sector that I think imply margins are doing okay,

2:40.9

even in a world war higher tariffs, especially margins that are getting help from AI and related

...

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