4.7 • 4.3K Ratings
🗓️ 15 August 2011
⏱️ 67 minutes
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0:00.0 | Welcome to Econ Talk, part of the Library of Economics and Liberty. I'm your host Russ Roberts |
0:13.9 | of George Mason University and Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Our website is econtalk.org |
0:21.2 | where you can subscribe, find other episodes, comment on this podcast, and find links to |
0:26.5 | other information related to today's conversation. Our email address is mailadicontalk.org. We'd |
0:33.6 | love to hear from you. Today is July 29th, 2011, and my guest is David Brady, the Davies family |
0:43.8 | senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and the Bowen H and Janice Arthur are quite |
0:48.3 | professor of political science and leadership values in the Stanford Graduate School of Business, |
0:53.5 | and just a mere professor of political science here at Stanford. Dave, welcome back to |
0:57.2 | Econ Talk. Thanks for having me. It's July 29th. We're taping this maybe four days before |
1:04.1 | the debt ceiling is supposed to be reached. We're not sure what's going to happen. We're |
1:09.5 | living in fascinating political times. What I want to do in this podcast is take a broad |
1:14.0 | look at the last three years of presidential and congressional politics. Talk about where |
1:18.5 | the electorate is now, and then maybe hear your speculations about where we might be headed. |
1:24.8 | A year ago, we spoke August of 2010. It was about three months before the midterm elections. |
1:32.4 | You said that a typical Democratic president in midterm elections loses about 30 seats. |
1:38.0 | You then talked about why that could be misleading. Yet, formal models of midterm elections |
1:45.5 | by academic political scientists did predict in roughly that range. They all systematically |
1:51.4 | underestimated what turned out to be the outcome, which I think was a law of 63 seats for |
1:56.1 | the Democrats. What happened and why did those models fail? |
2:01.9 | Those models failed because they essentially built into them that Congresswoman acted rationally. |
2:11.6 | That is, that the members voted in line with what their constituents wanted. |
2:16.2 | I think with the idea that they wanted to be reelected. So I thought that would be the highest |
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