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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Daily Briefing – Aug 27, 2020 – Sentiment is Shifting in the Markets: Tommy Thornton

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 27 August 2020

⏱️ 41 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to check the pulse of the market. Tommy discusses how frothy markets have seen price action heavily skewed by sentiment, and how, with companies withholding guidance for the year, investors are flying blind. He and Ash go over some of the tools Tommy utilizes to examine market trends and momentum, explore how short sellers are currently getting smoked, and consider whether the Fed can continue its QE binge. Tommy then provides his view on the Fed’s move toward average inflation targeting and his forward outlook for the next few months. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and how the Fed is shifting course regarding inflation targeting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Thursday, August 27, 2020, just after market close in New York.

0:07.0

This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:15.2

I'm Ash Bennington joined shortly

0:17.5

by Tom Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry.

0:21.1

But first with the day's stories, Nick Kureya.

0:24.0

Thanks, Ash.

0:25.0

In his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this morning,

0:28.0

Fed Chair Jay Powell gave an official update to the Fed's policy on inflation targeting.

0:32.0

It was one of the most significant revamps in

0:34.7

their policy strategy since 2012. Having deliberated on these changes for the past year and a half,

0:39.9

the Fed is seeking to average out their inflation target of 2% over the long term.

0:44.4

In other words, in periods where inflation consistently is under 2%, the Fed will structure

0:49.4

monetary policy to aim right above the 2% threshold to average it out and meet their target

0:54.9

over time. Since setting the inflation target at 2% in 2012, the Fed has only met

0:59.8

that a few times in the past eight years, averaging about 1.4%.

1:03.7

Pal today had said, quote, the persistent undershoot of inflation from our 2% longer run objective

1:09.0

is a cause for concern, end quote.

1:10.9

Averging out their inflation targeting would help them avoid quote an adverse cycle of ever lower inflation and inflation expectations, end quote.

1:19.0

An economy that thrives on credit and its growth, a deflationary environment causes the debt burden to increase in real terms.

1:25.4

Low inflation is also a direct contributor to low rates, which, when an economic downturn occurs,

1:30.6

significantly hampers the central banks's ability to support the economy

1:34.6

through a recessionary period. Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the

...

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