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TechCheck

Cracks in the AI productivity bull case 7/11/25

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 11 July 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tech giants like Microsoft and Google are outsourcing more and more coding to AI in a productivity push. We dig into how new research suggests the tools might not be as helpful as expected.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Tech giants like Microsoft and Google are outsourcing more and more coding to AI in a productivity push.

0:08.7

But some new research shows the tools might not be as helpful as some expect.

0:12.8

Drew DeBos is digging into that for today's tech check.

0:15.6

Happy Friday, Dee.

0:16.6

Happy Friday. Good morning, Carl.

0:19.3

So this is some cold water poured on the AI productivity hype.

0:23.6

Researchers at Meter, which is an AI nonprofit research firm, ran a real-world trial and found that seasoned engineers were actually 19% slower when using AI tools like cursor.

0:36.6

Instead of speeding them up, the AI often gave

0:39.7

suggestions that looked helpful but actually required time-consuming corrections. Now, this undercuts

0:45.4

a core Wall Street narrative, that AI will supercharge white-collar efficiency and unlock a wave

0:51.0

of productivity gains across the enterprise. Instead, the study suggests that the return on AI coding,

0:57.0

it may be more and even less immediate than investors have priced in.

1:01.3

Now, there is some nuance here.

1:02.4

Prior studies from meter have shown a more straightforward benefit

1:06.2

to junior engineers from AI tools,

1:08.7

particularly for simpler, well-scoped tasks. Now, this latest suggests

1:12.9

that while it can help that group level up, it may actually be increasing reliance on senior

1:17.6

talent because someone still needs to debug, refine, and ship the final product. So that helps

1:23.1

explain the current talent wars, where Zuckerberg is throwing $100 million offers at top AI

1:28.2

engineers. They're more essential than ever. Meanwhile, new data shows that AI adoption appears to be

1:33.5

stalling more broadly. Ramp, this is a platform that tracks enterprise software spend. It shows that

1:38.1

paid AI tool usage was flat at about 40% after a very steep run-up over the past year.

...

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