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Wall Street Breakfast

CPI set to show inflation 'stubbornly strong'

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, News, Business, Investing

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 9 February 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

January CPI expected to have risen 0.3% on the month. (0:17) McDonald's investors looking for earnings inflection. (1:40) Elliott takes BP stake. (3:18)

Show Notes 
Earnings Calendar
Top 10 value stocks

Episode transcripts: seekingalpha.com/wsb
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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's

0:09.9

market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

0:14.1

Hello, today is Sunday February 9th, and I'm your host Kim Khan.

0:17.5

The Fed mandate seesaw keeps going, and we move from full employment to price stability this

0:21.6

week. The January Consumer Price Index hits Wednesday. Both headline and core CPI, which

0:27.1

excludes food and energy, are expected to have risen 0.3% on the month. Wells Fargo economists say

0:32.8

the first major inflation reading for 2025 is likely to show that inflation remains stubbornly strong.

0:38.9

Inflation's early strength in 2024 was a jarring reminder that restoring price stability would not be a

0:44.4

quick affair, they said. We'd expect some lingering issues around residual seasonality to buoy January

0:49.9

's core reading, but we think this dynamic will be less pronounced than last year.

0:58.4

Following Friday's jobs numbers, where upward revisions to recent months overshadowed a week payrolls rise, the markets are about 50-50 on the next Fed rate cut coming in June.

1:03.4

Stephen Blitz, economist at T.S. Lombard, says the January employment data and the benchmark

1:08.1

revisions have a simple message. The economy has been picking up

1:11.3

steam since mid-24, a charge now fueled by 100 basis points of cuts in financing rates. It is time to turn

1:18.8

the page from those dueling narratives of the economy is in recession and can the Fed manage a soft landing,

1:24.4

to the tail that the data tell. Growth and inflation will follow.

1:28.6

Looking to those benchmark revisions, total employment for 2024 was revised down by 0.4%,

1:33.8

which was not even a misdemeanor in statistical terms and hardly the capital crimes some were

1:38.5

expecting, Blitz said. Earnings keep rolling in, with a spotlight on consumer names this week.

1:44.5

McDonald's will release its highly anticipated Q4 earnings report on Monday.

1:48.4

Investors and analysts are anticipating a challenging quarter for the fast food giant,

1:52.3

but we'll be looking for signs of an inflection late in the quarter

...

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