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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Could you be hit by a falling satellite?

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 14 June 2025

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The number of satellites orbiting our planet has been rapidly increasing in recent years. But what are the risks when they start falling back down to earth?

The European Space agency estimate that by 2030 there will be 100,000 satellites in orbit. We look at whether that estimate is realistic and what it means for those of us living on the ground below, with the help of Jonathan McDowell and Fionagh Thomson. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard

Transcript

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0:00.0

Before this BBC podcast kicks off, I'd like to tell you about some others you might enjoy.

0:05.1

My name's Will Wilkin and I Commission Music Podcast for the BBC.

0:08.7

It's a really cool job, but every day we get to tell the incredible stories behind songs,

0:13.5

moments and movements, stories of struggle and success, rises and falls, the funny, the ridiculous.

0:19.1

And the BBC's position, at the heart of British music

0:21.7

means we can tell those stories like no one else. We were, are and always will be right there

0:27.2

at the centre of the narrative. So whether you want an insightful take on music right now, or a

0:32.0

nostalgic deep dive into some of the most famous and infamous moments in music, check out

0:36.5

the music podcasts on BBC Sounds.

0:39.0

Hello and thanks for downloading the more or less podcast. We're your guide to statistical

0:44.1

claims that seem out of this world. And I'm your Space Force Captain Tim Harford.

0:51.4

The loyal listener Edward wrote to more or less at BBC.co.uk, questioning a number he heard on our fellow BBC programme Inside Science.

1:00.8

The rate that satellites are being launched at the moment, there are going to be 100,000 up there by 2030, with them coming down at a rate of about one per hour.

1:11.7

The 100,000 figure comes from the European Space Agency's recent short film, Space Debris,

1:18.9

Is It a Crisis?

1:20.5

It does seem a lot, but then space is famously quite big.

1:25.0

We have questions, and so did Edward. Questions such as, is this really true? How many are

1:31.2

up there at the moment? How many are currently re-entering the atmosphere? And do they ever crash into

1:36.2

each other? To answer these questions, we spoke to someone who definitely knows more about this

1:41.3

than we do. I'm Jonathan McDowell.

1:47.9

I'm an astronomer at the Smithsonian Observatory on the campus of Harvard University.

1:50.3

And I've been studying the history of satellites

...

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