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BBC Inside Science

Coronavirus R number, genome study of Covid-19 survivors and using aircraft messages to assess aviation

BBC Inside Science

BBC

Technology, Science

4.51.3K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2020

⏱️ 33 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

R seems to have found its way into the newspapers and on Radio 4 as if it’s a word, or a letter, that we should all be familiar with and understand. As part of the government’s briefing on Sunday, it appeared in a pseudo-equation, the infographic - 'COVID alert level = R + number of infections' - the Government called R the 'Rate of Infection', but it is commonly known as the 'Reproduction Number'. So what exactly is R, and what does it do? Mathematical Biologist, Kit Yates, from the University of Bath, clears up the confusion, and explains how R was first calculated for covid-19. And one of the scientists tracking R in the UK is Petra Klepac, who is Assistant Professor in Infectious Disease Modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. She explains how crucial R is in tracking the pandemic and how it’s now being used to shape the way we get out of lockdown. There are so many variables about who will survive Covid-19 and who, unfortunately, will not. Many people will only experience mild symptoms, but a minority will have a severe or even life-threatening response. Whilst some of the difference can be explained by age, or underlying health conditions, the reasons why men and some ethnic minorities and a number of apparently fit younger people become so ill, is one of the great puzzles of this pandemic. Some of the uncertainly is down to environmental effects. But a lot of the variability could be down to our genomes. To try and find out, this week Genomics England announced funding for a study - The GenOMICC - COVID Genomics UK (CoG-UK) Partnership for Severely Ill Patients to sequence the whole genomes of 20,000 severely ill and 15,000 asymptomatic or very mild patients. Led by Genomics England, these genomes will be compared with those held in the 100,000 Genomes Project dataset. The coronavirus pandemic is really highlighting the need for fast, accurate ways to analyse data on a global and national scale. Be that data on the number of people dying or track and trace data from various apps. But do we realise how much data we leave about ourselves online even in normal times? This is something Professors Tobias Preis and Suzy Moat in the Data Science Lab, at the Warwick Business School get very excited about. They use rapid analysis of big data to try and understand our behaviour as a way to rapidly inform economists and policy makers on how the world works. They have been looking at alternative data sources to give us quicker estimates of what’s happening in the world – travel patterns, economic indicators, how many people have a given disease. This is going to become invaluable both during and in the aftermath of the pandemic, when understanding the economic fallout will be key to helping the economy recover. Take their latest work – where they’re gathering much quicker estimates on the contributions of air travel to the UK’s GDP. Presenter – Marnie Chesterton Producers – Fiona Roberts and Beth Eastwood

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're about to listen to a BBC podcast and trust me you'll get there in a moment but if you're a comedy fan

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Comedy is a fantastic joyous thing to do because really you're making people laugh,

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making people's days a bit better, helping them process, all manner of things.

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But you know I also know that comedy is really

0:24.4

subjective and everyone has different tastes so we've got a huge range of comedy on offer

0:29.6

from satire to silly shocking to soothing profound to just general pratting about. So if you

0:36.2

fancy a laugh, find your next comedy at BBC Sounds.

0:41.0

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0:45.0

Hello there and you probably already know this, but you're listening to the podcast of BBC

0:49.5

Inside Science, first broadcast on the 14th of May 2020. And this week we bring you a big

0:56.2

genomic study, COVID-19 flavor. We see how holiday snaps can also give a snapshot of the economy, that's COVID related, and we start with an explainer on, you guessed it, COVID, and more specifically the science around its transmission rate.

1:12.0

Next week, I promise we'll have all the other science,

1:15.0

but there's still so much about this pandemic that needs a good scientific dissection.

1:20.0

A. Let's talk about A. I've heard the news team chucking it into sentences all over Radio 4, so it's clearly passed into the realm of words we're supposed to understand. Although, Peddents will be thinking right now,

1:35.0

it's not a word, it's a letter.

1:38.0

As part of the government's briefing on Sunday,

1:40.4

they put up a pseudo-equation infographic. It read, COVID alert level equals R plus number of infections.

1:49.0

I know R as the reproduction number. The government call it the rate of infection.

1:54.6

Let's call the whole thing off. Joke. Let's call up a new old friend of the show, Kit Yates.

2:01.1

He's a mathematical biologist at the University of Bath and well placed to explain exactly what R actually is.

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