Consumer Crunch Intensifies… And International Opportunity 5/11/26
CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC
3.9 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 11 May 2026
⏱️ 43 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. |
| 0:05.6 | Here's what's on tap tonight. The consumer crunch intensifying as retail goes belly up with names like Target, Dollar Jen, Ralph Lauren, and Home Depot all getting hit. |
| 0:14.4 | With earnings just around the corner, can results revive these stocks or will the group get left out at checkout? |
| 0:20.3 | Plus Netflix takes a binging beatdown. Dr. Copper makes a house call with prices on the rise, the semi-testing stock that's quintupled over the past year, and charting overseas, a top technician takes her technicals abroad, the opportunity she sees in the international trade and emerging markets. I'm Melissa Leak, home to you live from'll be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Damien, Katie Socton, founder and managing partner at Fair Lead Strategies. Well, Sox, any of the day, marginally higher with the S&P and Nazai closing at fresh records, but not every sector, taking part in this record-breaking rally. Check out retail. The group getting hit hard today, |
| 0:55.0 | the XRT down over 3.5% riding a three-week losing streak into today's session. All but five constituents |
| 1:01.5 | in that ETA have ended in negative territory target, dropping over 5%. Dollar General, sinking |
| 1:06.8 | nearly 8% for its worst day since August 2024. Ralph Lauren, off by more than 4% in Home Depot, down almost 2%. |
| 1:14.9 | Now at November 2023 lows. |
| 1:18.6 | All of this, as we are waiting for Q1 earnings from retail, |
| 1:22.2 | which start next week with the aforementioned Home Depot, Target, and Walmart. |
| 1:25.8 | So, well, the commentary from these companies about energy, food prices, potential shopper, added stress to an already crunched consumer. What do you think, Guy? I think you're going to hear that for sure because there's no reason for them not to say that, number one. Number two, I think they're telling a bit of a story here. We had a call. I said Home Depot to 52-week low, Tim corrected me correctly and said it's actually a multi-year low. That, to me, is somewhat problematic. And it speaks to a consumer, despite what you hear, that's not in the great shape that I think a lot of pundits want to make you believe they are. It's interesting, too, because as we get into Walmart and even Target, I mean, the bar is high. |
| 2:01.7 | And I know it doesn't sound like it's high for Target, but I mean, and I know Target's had a |
| 2:04.8 | tough couple days, but is up almost 30% year-to-date. |
| 2:08.9 | Walmart's trading anywhere from 40 to 43 times, depending on your number, and the street |
| 2:14.5 | is comfortable keeping them up here at this multiple because of technology |
| 2:17.9 | because of their grocery business provides a lot of resilience. But it's just fascinating. |
| 2:25.0 | Meanwhile, discretionary, talk about being early for a trade. I thought like three years ago |
| 2:30.2 | we were going to see the move that we've seen in names like On On and Lulu and whatnot. And at one |
| 2:35.1 | point after being short, I covered Lulu way too early. My point is discretionary looked like it was |
| 2:40.2 | going to topple a long time ago. To me, on fundamentals that are the same ones that we have today, |
| 2:44.7 | it hasn't been that way. But if you look across apparel and you look across at leisure and you |
| 2:49.5 | look across a very, I think, competitive space there, I don't think you're going near those names. Lulu continues to set new lows. And remember, a lot of these names were going into this downtraft at margin profiles for their businesses that were extremely high. They're not going to hold them. Yeah, I'd point you to the banks, though. You know, we heard from the Money Center banks. It feels like it was a month ago, right? And all of them talked about the resilience of a consumer. But, you know, at that point, we hadn't seen oil climb to the prices that it's been for as long as it's been. So it'll be interesting to see if we see any of those companies kind of update that view. And then on the flip side of that is if you look at like Capital One, and we've been talking about this, if you look at American Express, and those are different ends of that case shaped, and neither of those stocks act particularly well, right? And so when I think about what's been going on in the labor market, you know, we've seen a lot of layoffs in areas where it's not blue collar. It's not lower earners. These are white collar jobs at big tech companies and some big industrial companies, and they're kind of speaking to AI for all intents and purposes. I know that that's not something that a lot of folks are out there think politically makes a lot of sense. But if that's where you're starting to see a lot of job cuts, that's where you could see some pressure on a higher earning consumer and make no mistake about it. I mean, the wealth effect from the stock market is certainly helping that upper sort of K, should I stop saying the K thing? Probably. It's fine. Yeah, I mean, it's a third time. Well, let's not do it three times. But, you know, I mean, that's something that could actually end up avoiding or kind of really weighing on the higher earning. |
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