Cold Confusion: Alexandros Marinos unpacks the TOGETHER Trial with Bret

DarkHorse Podcast

Bret Weinstein & Heather Heying

Natural Sciences, Society & Culture, News, Adaptation, Modernity, Culture, Politics, Science, Evolutionary Biology

4.6 • 5.3K Ratings

🗓️ 2 May 2022

⏱️ 131 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Bret speaks with Alexandros Marinos, who has analyzed the TOGETHER trial, which aims to identify effective repurposed therapies to prevent the disease progression of COVID-19.

Alexandros is the Founder/CEO of http://balena.io & aspiring practical philosopher. Find him on:

https://twitter.com/alexandrosm

https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/

Mentioned in this episode:

https://www.togethertrial.com/

https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-the-together-trial

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:11) Better Skeptics project – analyzing COVID podcasts

(08:12) TOGETHER trial and its timeline

(15:35) Ads

(19:08) Dosage & initial TOGETHER trial design

(25:29) Confusing paper and placebo group dropout?

(31:23) IVM dose too low and new protocol

(35:04) Trial recruitment over time and key 10-week period

(43:42) Systemic errors

(51:33) Placebo arm from earlier period?

(57:11) Trial data not being released

(01:02:27) Exclusion criteria flipped

(01:06:38) Hypothesis on algorithm rebalancing arms

(01:13:35) Allocation to Fluvoxamine arm

(01:17:12) TOGETHER trial authors believe IVM has an effect

(01:20:15) Credible intervals and Bayesian statistics

(01:25:55) Will we ever get the full story?

(01:30:28) Dosing and weight limit

(01:34:52) Background use of IVM in Brazil

(01:47:19) “Independent” committee monitoring trial

(01:54:29) Cavallo study and inconsistency in response

(01:57:41) Press releases and cold confusion

(02:09:27) Wrap up

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Transcript

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0:00.0	In fact, Mills, the principal investigator in his email to Steve Kirsch, said,
0:06.4	I actually think the result is positive and it showed a 17% reduction in hospitalization.
0:11.3	And if we had only randomized a few more patients, I believe that it would have come out significant.
0:17.2	So this is literally his quote.
0:18.7	So this is this is stunning.
0:22.4	The principal investigator on this trial, this trial, which has been
0:28.0	heralded from the rooftops as suggesting that this drug has no effect.
0:33.1	The principal investigator believes that the trial showed that it was not effective
0:40.2	because they didn't have enough patients that they, he believes they saw an effect.
0:44.9	Yep.
0:45.7	Right? And that if they had randomized more patients, that that effect would have been such that the conclusion
0:51.2	would have been different.
0:52.0	That is an amazing thing to be true coming from the primary author on a paper that the Wall Street Journal is telling us says
1:00.5	Ivermectin doesn't work.
1:08.6	Hey folks, welcome to the Dark Horse Podcast.
1:11.2	I am Dr. Brett Weinstein and I am sitting today with Alex Zandros Marinos, who is the CEO of
1:19.0	Ballena, who has been doing a deep dive on the recent or recently revealed together trial
1:26.7	Ivermectin arm.
1:28.7	We are going to talk through that work today.
1:31.9	Welcome, Alex.
1:34.3	I get to be here.
1:36.0	So I should probably tell the audience that we have become friends.
	...

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