Welcome to overtime, I'm Mike Santoli in for Scott Wopner. You just heard the bells, but we are just getting started.

And we begin with our talk of the tape. A big call for your money from Guggenheim's Scott Minor.

Just moments ago he released a new note to investors saying the Fed could be forced to stop

tightening as soon as early November.

Scott joins us now in an overtime exclusive by Foll and Scott

as I speak to you over the din being made by the mortgage re that's closing the bell, closing the session today.

Scott, very interesting note, your big case here seems to be that the Fed is at risk of over tightening or at least

that something in the global markets might break along the way and essentially

force the Fed's hand and that investors should be prepared for

this type of scenario. Why do you see that playing out here?

Well you know Mike this has been my view ever since I went to the Central Bank Conference at the Hoover Institution earlier

in the year.

And I had a chance to talk with various Fed presidents and other officials, and it was clear

to me that the comment I walked out with and I took back to my traders was the Fed will push this until something breaks.

And so, you know, it's very clear as things have gone on over the past few weeks, especially in the last two weeks, that we are seeing cracks all over the place.

Of course, probably one of the biggest was... we are seeing cracks all over the place.

Of course, probably one of the biggest was the incident we had in the UK,

whereas the Bank of England had to step into the guilt market to prop up guilt to offset the risk of what could have become a

global financial downward spiral.

And you know there are other things out there that have been a

challenging. We know that mortgage reats have been in the mode of having to be

forced liquidators of mortgages just at the same time that the Federal

...