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Closing Bell

Closing Bell: How Far Can This Rally Go? 8/12/25

Closing Bell

CNBC

Business, News

4.8118 Ratings

🗓️ 12 August 2025

⏱️ 43 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The record run resumed with new questions about how far this rally can really go? Blackrock’s Rick Rieder gives us his take. Plus, former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan tells us what he thinks the Fed should do about interest rates. And, 3Fourteen’s Warren Pies tells us where he thinks stocks are heading – as we near another record close.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner. This make or break hour begins with the hunt for more milestones. The S&P going for its first ever close above 6,400 will track its every move over this final stretch. Here's a look at the majors. A CPI report deemed good enough was enough to get stocks moving higher today. Investors clearly betting that a September rate cut now, all but a lock. The Russell surging, the two-year note yield falling, all the classic signs, of course, that you'd expect to see. We'll ask Black Rock's Rick Reeder what is likely to happen. He's going to join me right here at Post 9 momentarily. Elsewhere, an all-time high for Meta today.

0:38.5

Threads shows 400 million monthly active users, a big number, and the market loved it.

0:44.2

Chips like Micron, Nvidia, and Broadcom also having a very good day to day.

0:47.8

And airline stocks are surging. The market gaming out, some potential consolidation involving

0:51.9

a low-cost carrier. But it takes us to our talk of the tape right now. The record run resumed with new questions about how far this rally can really go. Let's ask Rick Reeder. He is BlackRock, CIO of Global Fixed Income. It's head of its global allocation team as well. And as I said, he is with me here at Post 9. It's good to have you back. Thanks for having me.

1:08.3

I tell you, you sent me an email earlier. I had to do a double take. You said this is the best investment environment ever. I think that. You mean that? I do. And by the way, it doesn't mean necessarily everything's going up. But there's a couple of things that play that are pretty extraordinary. First of all, you take the equity side.

1:10.2

First of all, the technicals and equities are crazy.

1:49.0

I know we've talked about it before. Amount of cash on the sideline, the amount of buybacks relative to the IPO calendar, i.e. the demand versus supply is pretty extraordinary. And these companies, you know, we've talked about on the show, the multiple is not that attractive. These companies are thrown off these earnings, the earnings growth. So I looked at 2024. If you strip out Tesla for obvious reasons,

1:54.7

max seven year-on-year growth is like 54%. You get through multiple pretty quickly when you're growing that fast. Then you take the other side of it is you've got an income and fixed income.

2:00.1

You're getting yield levels.

2:01.3

I think the fact can cut rates, but until then, you got yield levels.

2:05.3

You can create portfolio six and a half, seven percent yield.

2:08.7

That's pretty good.

2:09.7

I thought one last thing.

2:10.8

Today, volatility, you don't have to necessarily, one of the things I always think about,

2:15.7

what's your exit strategy, what's your escape hatch if if you get something surprising, the volatility, the equity market, you know, we did a trade today, equity vol, I think was 10 vol, 9-5-10 vol to own a crazy low volatility to own equities, so you don't actually have to take the downside risk. So that's a pretty good environment.

2:34.5

And the Fed's going to cut in September?

2:37.3

Listen, I think they can cut.

2:38.7

I think it's almost a given that they cut.

2:41.0

And particularly if you've got a payroll report that shows what is here to four happened,

2:45.3

you're seeing some soguiness around job hires, around job openings,

2:50.4

that I think the Fed's got, you've got more slack coming into the labor market, so I think they can move. Listen, I think, I still think the funds rate, you can get it down faster and more aggressively than where they are today. You're talking about, you know, the inflation report today. You're still talking about there's a little bit of elevation from tariffs, which I think you have to be respectful of, and I think the Fed's been respectful of that. But you're still running under 3% core CPI, and things like Shelter, you're starting to see some improvement. And I think they've got room. You're talking about five-year inflation break-evens at two and a half percent, I think you got room to get that funds

...

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