China, Trump and Asia's Shifting Trade Order

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Julia McGonagle

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 7 February 2017

⏱️ 23 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The United States appears poised to revisit its trading stance with China - and Asia more broadly - after the inauguration of President Donald Trump. Andrew Tilton, chief Asia economist of Goldman Sachs Research, considers the Asian economies most at-risk of disruption and the evolving roles of both China and the US in the region. This podcast was recorded on February 6, 2017. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2017 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Exchanges Goldman Sachs, where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries in the global
0:13.7	economy. My name is Jake Stewart and I run corporate communications here at Goldman Sachs.
0:19.1	The interconnectedness of global markets has been a hot topic in the political realm over the last several
0:23.6	months. My guest today Andrew Tilton is the chief Asia economist for Goldman Sachs research and he's
0:29.2	here today to discuss the economic relationships between Asian economies big and small and also across the Pacific and around the world.
0:36.0	Andrew, welcome to the program.
0:38.0	Thank you. So it's hard not to start off with your take on the rising tensions between the United States and Asia.
0:44.6	One of President Trump's first actions after assuming office was to end U.S. involvement in the
0:49.8	Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. Investors at our recent macro conference
0:54.6	in Hong Kong cited the risk of damaging trade wars
0:58.1	as their number one concern for 2017.
1:00.4	And the president's already had a couple interesting phone calls with leaders in the
1:04.7	region.
1:05.7	What are the key risks or opportunities for Asia from this new climate?
1:09.2	Well I think a lot of the historic success of East Asian economic development has been built on manufacturing exports.
1:17.0	Growing the manufacturing base, exporting more to the U.S. and other developed markets, that's been predicated on a relatively free and open trading environment.
1:25.0	If that comes into question because of some of the new actions of the administration,
1:29.0	that would be a significant risk to the development strategy
1:32.0	not only of China, but of other nations in the region.
1:36.1	Most commentators expect that any increase of the US puts on taxes or tariffs on Chinese goods would be reciprocated.
1:42.1	It would be hard to imagine China not responding.
1:44.5	Who might be the winners and losers in that kind of a scenario?
	...

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