When you play the game at that level, I mean if you asked a quarterback in the Super Bowl who's behind 30 to nothing in the third quarter, do you think you're going to win? They're going to say, yeah, we're going to win.

They have that confidence in their ability because they've done that before. They have

come back. And I think that you really have to have that belief to keep going.

In politics, as in sport, upsets happen. Joe Biden's far ahead of Donald Trump in the polls right now.

But front runners sometimes lose.

Teams do score 30 points in the fourth quarter from time to time. With 87 days to go, this is

checks and balance.

I'm John Prudo, the Economist's US editor, and this is a podcast about the 2020 elections.

Each week we take a big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth.

Today, how to lose an 89% chance of victory.

But it's still early August and a lot can change in three months.

In this episode we'll hear from two campaign veterans about how quickly a dead cert can become

and also ran.

We'll hear what it's like to be trapped inside a doomed campaign,

and we'll find out how campaigns that seem to be going brilliantly in the summer can fall apart in the fall. With me as ever to discuss all of this is Charlotte Howard, our New York Bureau Chief, and John Fasman, our Washington correspondent.

Charlotte and John, you come to us despite interference from Hurricane Iseus, who's knocked out

your power at home, John. In fact, I can hear the gentle hum of a propane

generator in the background. We've been running on generator power for about two days

now. The interview you're going to hear in the show I recorded at the Gun

Memorial Library I'm very grateful to them for letting

me record there. But when I got out of the recording session, I found a giant tree blocking

our streets. So we have been propaned and trapped for about two days.

...