The arithmetic is grim. Even the most optimistic modelling now expects the Covid-19 pandemic to

kill twice as many Americans as the Vietnam War. But that estimate of 100 to 250,000 deaths

is the same as the number of Americans thought to die each year from what are called deaths of despair,

suicide, drugs and alcohol. And these are tolerated without massive government intervention.

It may seem inconceivable now, but at least while we wait for a vaccine,

ending the lockdown will require Americans to reach an accommodation with a grim statistic like this.

Could that happen? With 213 days to go, this is checks and balance.

I'm John Prado, the economist's US editor, and this is a podcast about the 2020 elections.

Each week we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth.

Today, how long could the lockdown last?

President Trump changed tone and changed course this week, as American death and infection

numbers passed China's official totals. He extended federal guidelines on social distancing

until the end of the month. New York is the centre of the pandemic, but large parts of the US

remain unaffected for now. Public opinion supports strict measures to contain the virus, but for how long?

In this episode, we'll ask how political the lockdown might get. We'll hear from New Jersey

Senator Corey Booker, look into the models behind the lockdown and trace history's most notorious

asymptomatic carrier.

As ever, I'm joined by Charlotte Howard, the economist's New York bureau chief, and by John Fasman,

the Washington correspondent, John, how are you doing? I mean, you are America's most

parapetetic reporter. You're on a plane most weeks, and you're hardly ever at home. How are you

finding being in one place for such a long time? And how are you staying abreast of what's going on

in America whilst being stuck on your couch? Well, generally what I do is I get up at around five

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