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Centre for European Reform podcast

CER podcast: The cost of Brexit to December 2018

Centre for European Reform podcast

Centre for European Reform

News

4.853 Ratings

🗓️ 10 April 2019

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis and draws some political lessons from the findings.

Transcript

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0:00.0

From the Centre for European Reform, this is the CEO podcast.

0:04.5

It is a critical moment. If we do not act with urgency, we would then severely undermine the liberal order.

0:17.6

Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it.

0:23.9

The wind is back in Europe's sales.

0:27.3

We have now a window of opportunity, but it will not stay open forever.

0:34.0

Hi, you're listening to the CEO podcast with me, Beth Oppenheim,

0:38.6

and today I have with me John Springford, the CEO's deputy director. Hi, John. Hi, Beth. So, Brexiteers argue that leaving

0:44.9

the EU will lead to a prosperous UK unshackled from the meddling EU off-striking trade agreements

0:50.9

far and wide. The Conservatives have always liked to depict themselves as the grown-up party, the safe pair of hands for the economy, but it now really seems

0:58.2

indisputable that leaving the EU is going to make Britain worse off. Even Philip Hammond has said

1:03.5

so himself. The UK economy will grow outside the European Union, but the economy will be,

1:10.5

in any of these scenarios a little bit smaller

1:13.9

than it would have been if we'd remained inside the European Union.

1:18.3

So today you're bringing us and our listeners your latest calculations on the cost of Brexit so far,

1:23.4

the fourth update. Your last estimate, based on data until September 2018, put the fiscal

1:29.0

cost at £320 million a week or 2.3% of GDP. How are things looking now?

1:35.8

Well, things are looking fairly similar, to be honest. The last data we have is until

1:39.9

December 2018, the last quarter of last year. The cost has risen a bit to about two and a half

1:47.4

percent of GDP. The UK had a pretty bad quarter of growth and so that has increased the

1:53.1

cost so far. And the knock-on effect of that onto the public finances has meant that it's gone up to

1:59.2

about 360 million a week, which is, you know,

2:02.9

it's a bit of a static picture. And basically the story over the entire number of estimates that

...

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